Saturday, October 31, 2009

What is with Iowa?

They are 9-0. They are #4 in the BCS. They just beat Indiana by 18. And, somewhat coincidentally, they also just got whooped up and down the field for 3+ quarters against Indiana, generally looking like crap in doing so.

Up to this point, every time I have watched Iowa I have been impressed. Their defensive line has been very strong, if not overpowering, against teams like Michigan State, Penn State, Michigan and Wisconsin. Junior quarterback Ricky Stanzi has been unexceptional, but effective enough to win games. They have played smart football and they have played Iowa football, grinding games out in somewhat unattractive fashion.

How then to explain what happened today? For three quarters, it seemed the referees, the Indiana players and the football gods were all conspiring to keep Iowa in the game no matter how badly they played, and Iowa kept trying to turn down every chance they got. After Iowa fell behind 14-0 early in the game, Stanzi came alive near the end of the second quarter, completing three straight passes to get the Hawkeyes in scoring position inside the 10, from where freshman running back Brandon Wegher finished the drive. Their defense then responded with a strong stand to force Indiana to punt with under a minute left in the half, allowing Iowa to feel incredibly fortunate about the prospects of going into the locker room only down a touchdown after being whooped for 30 minutes. So what happens on that punt? Junior Amari Spievey unwisely fields the ball inside the 10 and then proceeds to dance and spin seemingly unaware that he had the ball in his hands 90 yards away from anywhere productive with the clock running down, and the ball winds up on the ground and eventually in the hands of a Hooiser. Two plays later, Indiana is taking a 21-7 lead into the half instead of a 14-7 lead.

Things get worse for Iowa early in the second half as Stanzi throws his second and third interception of the day (and he's not done yet, folks), with his third INT leaving the Hoosier with a first and goal at the four. However, two plays later on 3rd and goal, Hawkeye sophomore strong safety Tyler Sash grabs ahold of a wildly batted ball and sprints the remaining 86 yards for a Hawkeye touchdown for at least a 10-point swing. Instead of the Hoosiers potentially taking a 24-7 lead with a chip shot field goal, Iowa is back within a TD at 21-14.

But, Indiana doesn't flinch and their junior quarterback Ben Chappell hits a big play to sophomore wide receiver Damario Belcher to put the Hoosiers in scoring position, and then a couple plays later Chappell hits junior wide receiver Terrance Turner for a pretty apparent touchdown in the corner of the end zone. The call was ruled a TD on the field, and replays seemed to confirm that Turner dragged his foot in the end zone with possession of the ball. However, the refs and football gods got together again to give Iowa a boost and overruled the call, and the Indiana team joined in the charity as they then proceeded to miss a chip-shot field goal.

But Iowa and Stanzi were having none of it. "We will not take your charity," they shouted, as Stanzi proceeded to throw his fourth INT of the day, leaving Indiana with the ball at the Iowa 25. The Hoosiers couldn't take full advantage of the field position, but were able to add a FG, putting them up 24-14.

And Stanzi wasn't quite done yet, throwing his fifth INT on the next drive.

And then, the clock ran out on the third quarter, and there must have been a buzzer or a bell or maybe some AM radio was played on the PA system, because Iowa rolled over, turned off the alarm clock and got the hell out of bed.

In the 4th quarter, Indiana amassed 32 yards, and Chappell threw two INTs. Iowa, meanwhile, scored touchdowns on successive offensive plays of 92 yards (Stanzi to sophomore Marvin McNutt) and 66 yards (Stanzi to junior Derrell Johnson-Koulianos), and then added two more touchdowns on long grind-it-out Iowa-type drives to turn the final score into a yawner, 42-24.

Now, give credit to the Hawkeyes for being able to beat a team they should have beaten on a day when they didn't play their best, but this was a really perplexing game to watch. For the better part of three and a half quarters, Iowa was out there throwing the ball around like they were Air Coryell or something, almost ignoring Wegher for most of the game, even while Stanzi flailed in the wind. And, even more perplexing, the Iowa defensive line that has looked so extraordinary against other Big Ten offensive lines (and certainly more highly regarded offensive lines as well) was utterly ineffective for much of the day against the Hoosier offensive line.

Iowa still remains on track for a battle against the Buckeyes in Columbus for the Big Ten title in a couple weeks, but given the way they played today, questions that were previously thought answered about the Hawkeyes are back in play again.

Monday, October 26, 2009

MWC 2009-10 College Basketball Preview

MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE

Predicted Order of Finish:

1. BYU 12-4
2. UNLV 11-5
3. San Diego State 10-6
4. Utah 10-6
5. New Mexico 9-7
6. TCU 7-9
7. Wyoming 6-10
8. Colorado State 5-11
9. Air Force 2-14


All-Conference Team:


G: Jimmer Fredette, Jr, BYU (16.2ppg, 4.0 apg)
G: Carlon Brown, Jr, Utah (9.3 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 3.3 apg)
F: Afam Muojeke, Soph, Wyoming (13.8 ppg, 5.3 rpg)
F: Jonathan Tavernari, Sr, BYU (15.7 ppg, 7.2 rpg)
C: Zvonko Buljan, Sr, TCU (12.3 ppg, 7.8 rpg)

6th Man: Billy White, Sr, San Diego State (8.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg)

Impact Newcomer: Derrick Jasper, Jr, UNLV


What You Need to Know:


The Mountain West Conference is consistently one of the top high mid-major conferences in the country. In just over a decade in existence, the MWC has only failed to finish among the top 10 conferences in terms of RPI just once (2005-06), and only once in the conference’s history has it failed to advance more than one team to the NCAA tournament (2000-01). Six of its nine member schools feature campuses above 4,000 feet in elevation, and that, coupled with some small, raucous arenas, make MWC arenas a tough place for visiting teams to play.

New look league: Only five of last year’s top 20 scorers in the conference, and only one of last year’s top ten in minutes played, return. Last year, the Mountain West Conference was dominated by veterans, but despite their absence, coaches around the league have plenty of incoming talent to get excited about. For every Luke Nevill, Lee Cummard, Wink Adams, Kyle Spain or Brandon Ewing that has moved on, a Derrick Jasper, Malcolm Thomas, Kawhi Leonard, Shawn Glover or JayDee Luster has arrived.

As a result, every team in this league has questions that will need to be answered between now and March. Who can BYU get to step in and take up the slack that the graduation of Lee Cummard leaves? Can gigantic sophomore David Foster fill the hole in the paint for Utah left by Luke Nevill? Can UNLV get enough production from its front court to help their strong backcourt? Can Steve Fisher’s San Diego State squad not underachieve for once? Is New Mexico’s Phillip McDonald ready to become a star in this league?

Stability remains: While there has been a lot of turnover in terms of players in the MWC, the guys patrolling the sidelines will look remarkably similar. In an era of seemingly rampant coaching turnover, the MWC boasts nine returning coaches, three of whom (UNLV’s Lon Krueger, San Diego State’s Fisher and New Mexico’s Steve Alford) have more than 350 career wins.

BYU fans should feel particularly pleased to see their head coach, Dave Rose, return. Rose was diagnosed with pancreatic cancer just after the end of last season, but has been fortunate enough to have received a clean bill of health following treatment and surgery in the offseason.

Non-conference boost: One area where the conference has gone downhill recently has been in the strength of its collective non-conference schedule. In the early 00’s, the MWC was consistently in the top 10 conferences in terms of non-conference schedule strength, but have slid to the point where their non-conference schedule strength the past three years has been out of the top 20. It would appear, however, that the conference has made a concerted effort to improve those numbers this year. In addition to the inaugural MWC/MVC Challenge (which will give MWC teams a chance to compete against a mid-major conference of similar historical strength), you’ll find tough games against both major conferences and respected mid-major programs littering the schedules. From tough roadies against national powers like Arizona, LSU and UCLA to sneaky matchups against other mid-majors like Utah State, St. Mary’s and Oral Roberts, the MWC has gone a long way towards beefing up their early-season schedules.

Predicted Champion: BYU (NCAA Seed: #9)

BYU brings back the most experience to a league that will be sorely lacking in that area this season. Senior forward Jonathan Tavernari and junior guard Jimmer Fredette each finished in the top 10 in scoring in the conference last season, and each can be expected to increase their output a bit this season to make up for the loss of all-MWC forward Lee Cummard. Junior Jackson Emery joins Fredette in the backcourt and provides strong defense and a capable three-point stroke. Up front, the Cougars hope for solid contributions from senior Chris Miles and sophomore James Anderson. Miles is an offensive-minded post player, who can struggle a bit defensively against stronger players, while Anderson is a good defensive complement. Throw in some athletic players off the bench and a couple strong recruits and the Cougars look like the most solid of the teams at the top of the conference. The goal for BYU, however, will be to advance out of the first round of the NCAA Tournament, something they have failed to do in the lifetime of the MWC.


Top Contenders:


UNLV (NCAA Seed: #11)
Like the rest of the conference, the story of 2009-10 begins for the Rebels with what does not return. With Wink Adams, Rene Rougeau and a couple members of the supporting cast moving on, the Rebels will need a bit of a makeover to contend in the MWC. Luckily for Lon Krueger, UNLV returns two starting guards (junior Tre’Von Willis and sophomore Oscar Bellfield) and gets an influx of talent in the way of three talented transfers and a strong incoming class. The most heralded of the newcomers is Kentucky-transfer Derrick Jasper, a spectacular athlete who struggled at times with injuries in Lexington. Krueger envisions Jasper as a do-everything athlete, capable of ball-handling, strong defense, outside shooting and penetration. The question mark for the Runnin’ Rebels will be frontcourt, although help arrives there as well. UCLA transfer Chace Stanback will help some, but won’t provide a lot of muscle up front. Freshman Carlos Lopez could provide some of that muscle, but will take some time to develop. In the meantime, the Rebels will have to count on senior Darris Santee and sophomore Brice Massamba to do the dirty work while the backcourt provides the scoring punch.

San Diego State (NIT)
The Aztecs lost as much (or more) as anybody in the conference this offseason. Gone are such standbys as Kyle Spain, Lorenzo Wade, Richie Williams and more. However, instead of worrying about his empty cup, coach Steve Fisher has filled it up again. Freshman wing Kawhi Leonard, the most anticipated freshman recruit in the conference, and three talented Division I transfers (Malcolm Thomas and Tyrone Shelley from Pepperdine and Brian Carwell from Illinois) will give the Aztecs a much-needed infusion of talent. Couple those newcomers with returnees like junior guard D.J. Gay, junior forward Billy White, sophomore forward Tim Shelton and senior forward Mehdi Cheriet and the Aztecs cup is nearly overflowing with talent. White, in particular, is a guy that the coaching staff is excited about. He is long, athletic and skilled, and will likely be the go-to guy offensively, providing him with the opportunity to go from a talented player to a difference maker. However, given the perception that San Diego State has underachieved the past few seasons, the Aztecs will have to prove themselves capable of playing at a high caliber before being considered a championship contender.

Utah (NIT)
Replacing conference player of the year and defensive player of the year Luke Nevill will be no easy task for the Utes, but at least they’ve got the guy with the size to do it in 7’3” sophomore David Foster. Whether Foster is ready to play at this level after having been out of basketball for a couple of years (he was away on a Mormon mission last year), is another question entirely. Even if Foster is ready, he needn’t be counted on to score a lot, as the Utes return two strong guards in junior Carlon Brown and senior Luke Drca. Both players are big versatile guards, capable of running the offense, scoring and defending. Brown will need to improve his outside shot to take his game to the next level, but he is an explosive talent. Senior forward Kim Tillie provides experience and versatility along the front line, capable of defending a variety of players and rebounding the ball effectively. However, for Jim Boylen’s squad to challenge for a conference title, they will need to get contributions from elsewhere on the roster, with long, bouncy freshman wing Shawn Glover perhaps being the most likely candidate.

New Mexico (NIT)
Last year the Lobos finished in a three-way tie for the regular season title in the MWC, but were still left on the outside looking in when the NCAA tournament pairings were announced. To make matters worse for Steve Alford’s program, the three leading scorers on last year’s squad were all seniors who have moved on. The bright side, however, is that some intriguing talent remains. There are two returning starters in junior point guard Dairese Gary and senior wing Roman Martinez, both of whom expect to play an increased role this season. But the X-factor for the Lobos is sophomore guard Phillip McDonald, last year’s big recruit for Alford. McDonald will need to step up his game and provide a big scoring punch for the offense, a role he is capable of filling. Depth for the Lobos will come from a handful of returnees who got limited playing time last season and a pretty strong four-man recruiting class. If McDonald does rise to the occasion and Alford is able to coax some quality minutes out of his newcomers, the Lobos are more than capable of challenging for an NCAA tournament berth.

Top 10 RPI Boosters:

11/16 San Diego State @ St. Mary’s (11pm PST, ESPN) – an intriguing early season matchup during ESPN’s 24-Hour hoops marathon that can be a good barometer for both teams.
11/28 Louisville @ UNLV (1pm PST, Vs) – rematch of last year’s Rebel upset of Louisville at Freedom Hall.
12/2 Cal @ New Mexico (6pm PST, CBSC) – the Pit hosts Pac-10 favorite Bears.
12/2 UNLV @ Arizona (6pm PST, FSN-Arizona) – one of three big MWC matchups with the Wildcats.
12/9 Michigan @ Utah (6pt PST, CBSC) – the Utes have a brutal non-conference schedule (including hosting Oklahoma and travelling to LSU), but this may be their best chance for an upset.
12/12 New Mexico vs. Texas A&M (in Houston, 3pm PST) – not a home game for the Aggies, but a tough roadie nonetheless for the Lobos.
12/12 Kansas State vs. UNLV (@ Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, 4pm PST) – Lon Krueger hosts his old school in his new home town in an interesting clash between quick backcourts.
12/19 Creighton @ New Mexico (6pm PST, The MTN) – perhaps the best matchup in a strong inaugural edition of the MWC/MVC Challenge.
12/28 BYU @ Arizona (6pm PST, Fox College Sports) – tough holiday trip for the Cougs into McKale.
1/1 Dayton @ New Mexico (6pm PST, The MTN/CBSC)– the Flyers will have their work cut out for them with a New Year’s visit to the Pit.

Key Conference Games:

1/6 UNLV @ BYU (7pm PST, The MTN) – conference opener for both teams
1/27 BYU @ New Mexico (7pm PST, The MTN) – after a Saturday game in San Diego, BYU has to travel to the Pit on a Wednesday night.
2/17 UNLV @ Utah (7pm PST, The MTN) – the second of back-to-back tough roadies for the Rebels, where a slip-up could be easy.
2/24 San Diego State @ BYU (6pm PST, CBSC) – on the verge of March, the Aztec newcomers have had plenty of time to gel. This will be a test of their tournament readiness.
3/3 BYU @ Utah (6pm PST, CBSC) – the Holy War, the second to last conference game for each team

Digging Deeper:

As mentioned earlier, six of nine MWC member schools have campuses above 4,000 feet in elevation, with Wyoming’s campus at 7,220 feet the highest campus in Division I. And, the MWC has ranked in the top seven conferences nationally in terms of attendance in each of its first 10 years. Combine the two and you wind up with a strong homecourt advantage for MWC teams. Last season, the MWC was 108-40 (.729) in all home games and 59-16 (.786) in home games against non-conference opponents.

Final Thoughts:

All things considered, the MWC will be a fun conference to watch this season, giving you everything you watch college basketball for. While many of the stars in the conference are gone, you’ll have the opportunity to watch new stars emerge and to see new combinations gel. While it is unlikely that one of these teams will improve to the point of being a major threat deep in March (not that there aren’t five teams that could, with a little luck and expedited cohesion, get to the second week of the Big Dance), this will be the year that MWC coaches will be laying the groundwork for the future. As with any venture relying on youth and inexperience, there will be growing pains along the way, but given the experience and skill of the head coaches in the league, expect to see quite a few MWC teams playing at a high level throughout the season.

Saturday, October 24, 2009

Iowa/Michigan State

It may not have been everybody's cup of tea, but I just saw the best football game I've seen all season. This Big Ten battle had just about everything I could ask for in a college football game: tough running, clutch quarterback play, phenomenal defensive play on both sides of the ball, big hitting (two players left the field on a stretcher, which is definitely not a good thing, although thankfully both players appear to be okay at this early juncture, but it is indicative of how intense the game was), rabid fans, national championship and conference championship implications and several lead changes down the stretch.

To say that a game in which nothing but field goals were scored for the first 58 minutes ranks as a contender for the best game of the year, would certainly leave most people dumbfounded, but while there were plenty of fireworks in the final two minutes, the first 58 were nothing to laugh off. The Spartan offense struggled at times against a ferocious Iowa defense, but things began to come together late, when with the Spartans down 9-6, Michigan State quarterback hit tight end Brian Lithicum for about nine yards on a 3rd and 18 with the clock running down. However, as Iowa defenders converged on Lithicum, he lateraled the ball to wide receiver Blair White who continued on for 27 more yards. Two plays later Cousins found White in the end zone for a 30 yards touchdown to give Sparty a 13-9 lead, putting Iowa's undefeated season in grave danger.

But Iowa rallied, with quarterback Ricky Stanzi getting big completions to wide receivers Marvin McNutt, Trey Stross and Derrell Johnson-Koulianos to set the Hawkeyes up with a 1st and goal with 15 seconds remaining. Somehow, Iowa was able to get off three plays (all unsuccessful passes into the end zone) and yet still have 2 seconds on the clock for a fourth down play, when Stanzi again found McNutt, this time on an inside slant for the game-winning touchdown.

While this goes down as an excruciating loss for Mark Dantonio and the Spartans, this was certainly an exhilarating victory for Kirk Ferentz's now 8-0 Iowa Hawkeyes, and a completely compelling game for this particular non-partisan viewer.

Iowa now has a remaining schedule in which they have three home games that they should win (Indiana, Northwestern and Minnesota) with a tough road trip to Columbus to face the Buckeyes in the middle. While Iowa still remains a long shot to play in the BCS Championship game, their fireworks tonight kept that dream alive.

Either way, I am not ashamed to admit that I am unabashedly in love with the Iowa defense. Adrian Clayborn is an absolute beast at defensive end, a speedy pass rusher with enough strength to stand up an offensive tackle and play the run as well. Quick, undersized defensive tackle Karl Klug is next to him, often preventing opposing offenses from giving a lot of help to the lineman charged with slowing Clayborn. Throw in Christian Ballard at the other tackle and another athletic freak in sophomore Broderick Binns at the other end (Binns has a special knack for getting his hands up and knocking down passes at the line) and this Hawkeye defensive line (which rarely substitutes) is a handful for opposing offenses, quite capable of getting a pass rush without the need for sending extra blitzers, while effectively playing the run. The dominance of the defensive front, frees up playmakers in the back of the Iowa defense like middle linebacker Pat Angerer, cornerback Amari Spievey and strong safety Tyler Sash to make plays all over the field.

Given Terrelle Pryor and Ohio State's one-game resurgence today, the Iowa/Ohio State matchup in Columbus figures to be a battle for the Big Ten championship.

Monday, October 19, 2009

ACC 2009-10 College Basketball Preview

Predicted Order of Finish

Last year the pick for the top spot was pretty clear cut. And while there are plenty of people who will pick North Carolina to win the conference (with Duke the runner-up), things are definitely a bit murkier this year. To me, the easier part is picking a team to finish last: North Carolina State, no question in my mind. I’m going to go out on a limb and pick Georgia Tech to win the ACC, thanks in large part to newcomer Derrick Favors as a strong addition to an already intriguing roster. There is a strong group of teams in the middle of this conference (probably spots 4 through 10 or so) who all have the capability of making the tournament, but as always, at least a couple of them will be on the outside looking in.

1. Georgia Tech – Favors likely will only be in town for one season, so Paul Hewitt and the Yellow Jackets had better make the most of it. Gani Lawal’s decision to skip the NBA draft and come back for his junior season was a good first step.

2. North Carolina – Hansbrough’s gone. Lawson’s gone. Ellington’s gone. Green’s gone. And yet the Tar Heels remain a consensus top 10 (if not top 5) pick for this season. No doubt, a lot of talent returns and some new talent arrives, but this team will be young and potentially inconsistent throughout the season.

3. Duke – the Blue Devils got very lucky when recruit Andre Dawkins decided to skip his senior year of high school and head out to Durham a year early, giving Coach K a whopping total of three scholarship guards on his roster. At some point (and maybe several points) during the season, that lack of depth in the backcourt will be a problem.

4. Florida State – Leonard Hamilton lost Toney Douglas to graduation, but with sophomore wing Chris Singleton on the verge of stardom and a nice supporting cast, the ‘Noles shouldn’t lose any ground.

5. Clemson – the Tigers will not get off to the same type of start this season as the last couple. They’ll likely lose a game (or a couple) before conference play. The key for this program, however, is not how they start, but how they finish. There is enough potential here to win an NCAA tournament game, but at some point, Oliver Purnell’s squad needs to put it all together.

6. Maryland – Greivis Vasquez is back, choosing College Park over the NBA for now. And while Gary Williams has surrounded his senior star with more talent and experience than in years past, the Terrapins still do not have the talent to compete for an ACC title.

7. Boston College – Al Skinner’s team will be a tough out just about every night, with athletes across the floor and plenty of hard work, but let’s go ahead and put them on the bubble right now, a place they’ll likely still be in March.

8. Wake Forest – the Demon Deacons seemingly lost almost as much as their more decorated rival in Chapel Hill, with Jeff Teague and James Johnson playing at the next level this season, but with soph stud Al-Farouq Aminu leading the way, Dino Gaudio’s club could have just enough to go dancing.

9. Virginia Tech – much like BC, the Hokies are going to be a team that not a lot of coaches look forward to playing: lots of athletes, strong coaching, and tough environment. But, once again, the Seth Greenberg may be disappointed in the middle of March.

10. Miami – with Jack McClinton gone, the Hurricanes have a gaping hole at the head of their offense. If Villanova-transfer Malcon Grant can fill that spot, and if either exciting soph Dequan Jones or senior big man Dwayne Collins can take the next step, it is possible that Frank Haith will have his squad dancing again. This is a strong 10th place team.

11. Virginia – new head coach Tony Bennett comes to Charlottesville and he will bring discipline and toughness, and the Cavs will likely play a lot of close games. If Sylven Landesberg can be the big-play guy at the end of games, perhaps this squad can finish higher in the rankings. But, the lack of talent that Bennett finds on his roster will prevent the Cavs from finishing much higher.

12. North Carolina State – this is not a good team. With last year’s underachieving senior class gone and with JJ Hickson defecting early a couple season’s back, the cupboard is nearly empty in Raleigh. There had better be signs of life from what does remain, however, or else the Sidney Lowe era could end prematurely.

Preseason All-Conference

First Team
G Greivis Vasquez, Sr, Maryland
SF Chris Singleton, So, Florida State
F Trevor Booker, Sr, Clemson
F Ed Davis, So, North Carolina
C Derrick Favors, Fr, Georgia Tech

Second Team
G Jon Scheyer, Sr, Duke
G Sylven Landesburg, So, Virginia
F Al-Farouq Aminu, So, Wake Forest
F Kyle Singler, Jr, Duke
F Gani Lawal, Jr, Georgia Tech

All Freshman Team
G Michael Snaer, Florida State
F Milton Jennings, Clemson
F Mason Plumlee, Duke
F John Henson, North Carolina
C Derrick Favors, Georgia Tech

Preseason Tournament Tie-Ins

Boston College – Paradise Jam
Potential Opponents: St. Joseph’s, Purdue, Tennessee

Clemson – 76 Classic
Potential Opponents: Texas A&M, West Virginia, Butler/Minnesota/UCLA

Duke – NIT Season Tip-Off
Potential Opponents: Charlotte, Arizona State/TCU, LSU/Western Kentucky/UConn

Florida State – Old Spice Classic
Potential Opponents: Iona, Alabama/Baylor, Creighton/Marquette/Michigan/Xavier

Georgia Tech – Puerto Rico Tip-Off
Potential Opponents: Dayton, George Mason/Villanova, Indiana/Kansas State/Ole Miss
Maryland – Maui Invitational
Potential Opponents: Chaminade, Cincinnati/Vanderbilt, Arizona/Colorado/Gonzaga/Wisconsin

Miami – Charleston Classic
Potential Opponents: Tulane, Penn State, Davidson/South Carolina

North Carolina – 2K Sports Classic
Potential Opponents: Ohio State, Cal/Syracuse

Virginia – Cancun Classic
Potential Opponents: Stanford, Cleveland State/Kentucky

Top Ten Non-Conference Games
12/1 Michigan State @ North Carolina - the title game rematch is the jewel of this year’s ACC/Big Ten challenge.
12/2 Boston College @ Michigan- an interesting matchup of quality teams and excellent coaches.
12/2 Illinois @ Clemson – one of a handful of tough games prior to the ACC season for the Tigers.
12/2 Duke @ Wisconsin – the Blue Devils take a tough trip into Big Ten country to face the disciplined Badgers.
12/2 Florida State @ Ohio State – an early season test for a ‘Nole team with high hopes.
12/2 Minnesota @ Miami – this is the type of game that the ‘Canes will need to win to build their tournament resume early.
12/5 North Carolina @ Kentucky – the shine is back on in this rivalry, a matchup between a couple of the best teams in the country.
12/6 Maryland vs. Villanova in Washington DC – a tough neutral site matchup for the Terps.
12/19 North Carolina vs Texas at Cowboy Stadium – another pillar in a tough non-conference schedule for the Tar Heels. I wonder if the giant scoredboard will come into play.
1/30 Duke @ Georgetown – perhaps the best non-conference game of the season to occur after conference play has begun.

Big East 2009-10 College Basketball Preview

Predicted Order of Finish

Last season’s Big East featured an embarrassment of talents, up and down the standings, perhaps the strongest edition of this conference in history. And while a huge number of the star players from last year are playing elsewhere now, the Big East still features some outstanding returning veterans and some intriguing new prospects as well. Both Villanova and Connecticut were among the Final Four teams standing last season, and they will once again have something to say about the champion of this league. However, the middle of this conference is far more wide open this season, and there will be tournament slots available for the taking.

1. Villanova – while Jay Wright loses three major frontcourt contributors to last year’s Wildcat Final Four team, the backcourt not only returns, but adds even more talent for one of the deepest backcourt rotations in history. If they can get some contributions from the frontcourt, the ‘Cats have a strong chance to repeat last year’s March run.

2. West Virginia – Bob Huggins has assembled a fine collection of talent, highlighted by talented sophomore wing Devin Ebanks, but the ‘Neers will need contributions from up and down their roster to make this much noise.

3. Cincinnati – with heralded freshman Lance Stephenson joining last year’s squad that just missed the tournament, Mick Cronin has the pieces in place to make a strong run to the top of the conference.

4. Connecticut – gone are Hasheem Thabeet, A.J. Price and Jeff Adrien, but Kemba Walker, Stanley Robinson and Jerome Dyson return. Coupled with some returning role players and new prospects, the Huskies will continue to be a tough team to beat.

5. Georgetown – the Hoyas will not be a deep team this year, but they boast one of the most talented players in the country in Greg Monroe and a solid backcourt. If Monroe plays up to his potential, JT3’s squad could compete for a conference title.

6. Syracuse – a trio of familiar faces is gone, but the cupboard is far from empty in the Carrier Dome. However, free throw shooting will once again be the Achilles’ Heel for the Orange.

7. Seton Hall – this has got to be the year it all comes together for Bobby Gonzalez in South Orange. Jeremy Hazell is the flash and Eugene Harvey is the motor, and with talented frontcourt man Herb Pope along for the ride, the Pirates look primed to rejoin the dance.

8. Lousville – ever since Terrence Williams and Earl Clark played their last game for the Cardinals (a terrible loss to Michigan State in the Midwest Regional Final last season), things have been a mess in Rick Pitino’s program. While there is still plenty of talent around, all the off-court issues can’t help but be a distraction.

9. Pittsburgh – DeJuan Blair, Sam Young and LeVance Fields, all gone. That is not a threesome that is easily replaced. These Panthers will not be the national power that they have been in recent years, but Jamie Dixon is too good of a coach to let his team fall too far.

10. Notre Dame – while last year was a disappointing season for the Irish, things were looking up in the offseason with a couple exciting transfers coming in to help out Luke Harangody. Unfortunately, Purdue-transfer Scott Martin tore an ACL last month and will miss this season, meaning this is much the same team that underperformed last year. ‘Gody is good enough to carry a team, which is what will have to happen for Mike Brey’s team to dance.

11. St. John’s – this is probably the deepest team in the Norm Roberts era, and if everything breaks right, they have enough talent to make a run at the tournament. Given how things have gone in the previous five years, 11th is probably a good guess.

12. Marquette – the three-headed Warrior backcourt is gone and while Buzz Williams had an impressive debut season, he’ll have his hands full this season. He’ll have to lean heavily on Lazar Hayward and hope for immediate contributions from his class of six newcomers.

13. Rutgers – with Mike Rosario and Greg Echenique leading the way, Fred Hill hopes he has the Scarlet Knights headed in the right direction. He likely does, but progress can be slow up this kind of mountain.

14. South Florida – another Big East program trying to rise from the depths and scraping their way up the hill, the Bulls have a talented backcourt and some potential difference-makers in the frontcourt. This could be the year they make their move.

15. Providence – at least Keno Davis had one good year with some Providence veterans like Greg McDermott, Jon Kale and Weyinmi Efejuku, but now it is time to start over. The Friars will be back at least in the middle of the pack in a year or two, but this is the year they take their lumps.

16. DePaul – give credit to the DePaul administration for sticking with Jerry Wainwright for another year, but the Blue Demons just don’t have the talent to compete for even an upper division finish in the Big East.

Preseason All-Conference

First Team
G Kemba Walker, So, Connecticut
G Scottie Reynolds, Sr, Villanova
F Devin Ebanks, So, West Virginia
C Greg Monroe, So, Georgetown
C Luke Harangody, Sr, Notre Dame

Second Team
G Mike Rosario, So, Rutgers
G Sharaud Curry, Sr, Providence
F Lazar Hayward, Sr, Marquette
F Jeremy Hazell, Jr, Seton Hall
C Arinze Onuaku, Sr, Syracuse

All Freshman Team
G Lance Stephenson, Cincinnati
G Peyton Siva, Louisville
G Maalik Wayns, Villanova
G Brandon Triche, Syracuse
F Dante Taylor, Pittsburgh

Preseason Tournament Tie-Ins

Cincinnati – Maui Invitational
Possible Opponents: Vanderbilt, Maryland, Arizona/Colorado/Gonzaga/Wisconsin

Connecticut – NIT Season Tip-Off
Possible Opponents: Colgate, Hofstra, Western Kentucky/LSU, TCU/Arizona State/Duke/Charlotte

DePaul – Paradise Jam
Possible Opponents: Northern Iowa, East Carolina/Tennessee, Boston College, Purdue, St. Joe’s/South Dakota State

Marquette – Old Spice Classic
Possible Opponents: Xavier, Creighton/Michigan, Alabama/Baylor/Florida State

Notre Dame – Chicago Invitational
Possible Opponents: Northwestern, Iowa State/St. Louis

Pittsburgh – CBE Classic
Possible Opponents : Wichita State, Iowa/Texas

Rutgers – Legends Classic
Possible Opponents: UMass, Florida/Michigan State

South Florida – Charleston Classic
Possible Opponents: Davidson, La Salle/South Carolina, Miami/Penn State/Tulane/NC Wilmington

Syracuse – 2K Sports Classic
Possible Opponents: Cal, North Carolina/Ohio State

Villanova – Puerto Rico Tip-Off
Possible Opponents: George Mason, Dayton/Georgia Tech, Indiana/Kansas State/Ole Miss

West Virginia – 76 Classic
Possible Opponents: Long Beach State, Clemson/Texas A&M, Butler/Minnesota/Portland/UCLA

Top Ten Non-Conference Games

12/6 Villanova vs Maryland (Washington DC) – a semi-road game for the Wildcats in their toughest non-tournament non-conference game.
12/8 Georgetown vs Butler (Jimmy V Classic @ MSG) – this may be one of the most fundamentally sound games of the season
12/9 Kentucky @ Connecticut – Cal’s Cats gets a tough early season roadie up to Storrs in December.
12/12 Georgetown vs. Washington (Wooden Classic, Anaheim) – another Hoya neutral site game in a one-off game honoring a classic college coach.
12/13 Cincinnati @ Xavier – the battle of Cincinnati is always a heated rivalry, and this season’s matchup may feature the most talent in recent years.
12/19 UCLA @ Notre Dame – the Irish host a tough West Coast opponent in a test for both teams.
1/1 West Virginia @ Purdue – both of these squads fancy themselves national title contenders. This New Year’s battle will test both team’s beliefs.
1/2 Louisville @ Kentucky – the battle of Kentucky should be a wild one. Pitino might want to invest in ear plugs.
1/23 Texas @ Connecticut – Once again, UConn doesn’t really test itself on the road out of conference, but at least they host two national powers in Storrs this season.
1/30 Duke @ Georgetown – the Hoyas battle Duke for many of the same players year in and year out. Only fitting they should battle on the court too.

Monday, October 12, 2009

My first Top 25 list of the season

Until this point, I’ve resisted coming up with a top 25 list. Silly me. I figured it would be better to have seen the majority of the candidates for such a list before composing it.

At this point, I think I’m ready to come up with a list, having seen just about everybody with a record to qualify themselves. Now, I still haven’t seen TCU or Tulsa, I’m going to stick to ranking teams I’ve actually seen, and while that shouldn’t be held against TCU or Tulsa, bur rather me, neither of those teams will be ranked by me. Beyond that, I have seen a full game by each of the other teams who in my estimation (an estimate not entirely derived with the benefit of, you know, necessarily seeing those teams play) could claim a spot in my top 5.

I’m going to go on a completely random combination of “how they look” and “who they beat”, and I’ll try to give some marginal comment of why each team is where they are, based more on my sight than on anything statistical or meaningful.

1. Florida – I’ll admit this is more of a lifetime achievement award. I suppose I’m not supposed to consider what has happened in the past or what I expect to happen in the future at this point, but all of this is so subjective, it is hard to completely eliminate this stuff. The Gators didn’t look entirely great in knocking off LSU this weekend, but given their history and potential, I’m going to take these guys over a close #2 team.

2. Alabama – Now, Ole Miss has not shown a whole lot this season, but Alabama completely dominated them this weekend. Beyond that, Alabama has convincingly defeated a strong Virginia Tech squad. I think Alabama has probably done more so far this season to deserve the #1 spot, but I’m going to give it to Tebow and Florida by a nose so far. Can’t wait for the SEC Championship.

3. Cincinnati – I don’t want to put Cincinnati this high, but I think they deserve it over Texas, Boise State and Virginia Tech, if only because the Bearcats have look very good in winning against better teams than the other contenders for this spot have been. I find Cincy’s wins over teams like Rutgers, Oregon State and Fresno State to be more significant than Virginia Tech’s win over Nebraska, Boise State’s win over Oregon and Texas’ win over Texas Tech. Is that sick? That’s gotta be sick. Well, at least I recognize that, and by next week I will perhaps correct that issue. Unless Cincy beats up South Florida on the road next week and proves it to me all over again.

4. Boise State – If I’m gonna go with Cincy #3 on slim reason, I’m gonna go with the Broncs here this week, if only to make some type of internal sense in my ranking. I’m going to put Oregon pretty high in a few spots, so if Boise whooped up on them, the Broncs deserve the nod over some close competition, no? And, besides, as Boise continues to whoop up on the New Mexico States and Idahos of this world, they will seem less impressive and surely drop. I wish they could have scheduled someone more impressive than UC Davis in week five to possibly improve their strength of schedule.

5. Virginia Tech – so this boils down to me finding a win over Nebraska and a semi-decent loss to Alabama as more impressive than a win over Texas Tech, although we will definitely know more next weekend. The win over an overachieving Boston College team this weekend was decent, but expected.

6. Texas – This may be severely underrating this team. We’ll know more next weekend, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Longhorns to jump all the way to #2 in my ranking next week. At this point, they receive an “incomplete” for a grade.

7. USC – To me, we’re sorta to tier three here. Florida/Alabama = tier one. Cincy/Boise/ VaTech/Texas = tier two. And tier three is brief but impressive. USC and LSU. After the 8th spot, I think we’ve got a pretty significant fall-off to the next round of teams. The Trojans have a big win over Ohio State coupled with a bad loss to Washington, while LSU has a unimpressive loss to my current #1, Florida, paired with a marginally controversial win over Georgia and a dominating win over those same Huskies that knocked off ‘SC. And yet I’m putting ‘SC over LSU? Doesn’t make a lick of sense, does it? Oh well, it’s done.

8. LSU – See above. I will add that the rest of the LSU schedule will give the Tigers a phenomenal platform to launch themselves up the rankings, with Auburn coming up after a bye week and a phenomenally tough roadie to Alabama coming up in November followed a couple of weeks later to a marginally tough roadie to Ole Miss.

9. Ohio State – The Buckeyes are here, rather than 10th, based more on their win over Wisconsin (a team I had a bit of a crush on the last two weeks) this week than on their close loss to USC in September. This is where the rankings start to get more convoluted.

10. Miami – Do I want to put Georgia here? Maybe. But, if I’m going to start considering two-loss teams, doesn’t Oklahoma perhaps belong in the discussion? What about Oregon, a team that has looked very impressive for three straight weeks to temporarily erase the memory of the season opening debacle in Boise. But, since we’re considering Oklahoma and we’re trying to give the benefit of the doubt to teams that have played tough schedules and we’ve already even given thought to a two-loss team, what about a team that has (until this weekend) gone after nationally respected opponents with excellent success. The Hurricanes deserve this spot based on schedule and success.

11. Oregon – opened terribly, but a strong climb since there.

12. Oklahoma – two losses, to strong opponents, without their Heisman winning QB. We’ll give them the benefit of the doubt for one more week.

13. Iowa – a couple impressive wins in conference, and the nation’s second-longest win streak, but they may still be a bit underrated here.

14. Kansas – the only thing the Jayhawks have done so far is beat the teams that they are supposed to. The back half of their schedule is significantly more difficult.

15. Nebraska – their only loss is a rather impressive loss to my #5 team, and it looks like Bo Pelini has this program started on the path back to relevance.

16. Notre Dame – a heartbreaker of a loss to Michigan and a couple heart-stopping wins get them this high, but the Trojans loom.

17. Georgia Tech – Miami handled the Ramblin’ Wreck pretty easily, but beyond that Tech has performed well.

18. BYU – dominated by Florida State a couple weeks after their win in the opener against Oklahoma, but the Cougars have righted the ship in recent weeks.

19. Auburn – came crashing back down to earth in a tough conference roadie against Arkansas, but Gene Chizik and Gus Malzach have this team headed in the right direction.

20. South Carolina – they don’t often look pretty, but a tough defense and competent play out of quarterback Stephen Garcia and the Ol’ Ballcoach is a tough matchup again.

21. Wisconsin – Ohio State took advantage of some mistakes by quarterback Scott Tolzein this past weekend, but Bret Bielema is getting back to Badger ball of old: tough defense, grind-it-out offense and a load in the backfield in running back John Clay.

22. South Florida – senior quarterback Matt Grothe’s career ended prematurely, but this Bull squad has playmakers all over the field on both sides of the ball. They’ve got a monster game coming up at home against Cincinnati on Thursday, and a win there could vault this squad up near the top 10.

23. Pittsburgh – they’ve done what they’ve had to do so far, but the Panthers will have plenty of chances to prove themselves one way or the other on the back half of their schedule.

24. Penn State – graduation and injuries have hurt the Nittany Lions more than was expected, and Darryl Clark’s offense has yet to get on the same page.

25. Houston – a terrible loss at UTEP, but I’m still gonna give the Cougars a spot in my top 25, if only because I briefly considered both Oklahoma State and Texas Tech for this spot, two teams that Houston has already beaten.