Wednesday, November 21, 2007

CBE Classic Review

For my money, the most impressive slate of teams in the semifinal round of a tournament so far has occurred in the CBE Classic, consisting of the #1 team in the land, a Big 10 favorite and two other major conference up and coming teams. Just a quick look at these four teams and what we learned about them in their play in Kansas City:

4) Maryland obviously had a rough time, running into a buzzsaw in UCLA in the first round and then having to match up against a difficult Missouri team a day later. While I still think Maryland has a strong chance at making the NCAA tournament, they have some major issues. Perhaps most important is their complete inability to hit the three-point shot, only hitting one in each game, and both of those coming at the end of games when they were scrambling to get back in it. I think this is going to be a season-long problem as I’m not sure anyone on their team is capable of doing that reasonably well. The second major problem for this team is taking care of the ball. Turning the ball over 44 times over the course of two games and only hitting two three-pointers is a sure recipe for failure against top competition. Certainly Gary Williams will get the most out of his team, but I don’t think this team has the necessary components to be a serious contender come March.

3) Missouri certainly gave their fans a fun time in Kansas City, and their fast-paced, high-pressure style is likely to give opposing teams fits throughout the season. They put together a furious comeback against Michigan State in the semifinal round, only to have it thwarted in crunch-time by veteran Drew Neitzel, but came back on Tuesday to handle Maryland. Missouri doesn’t have a lot of height, but they are a very athletic team that will pressure the ball full court from the opening jump to the closing buzzer, and their ability to spread the court offensively and get penetration from guards Stefhon Hannah and Keon Lawrence and knock down three-pointers with Hannah, Lawrence and junior swingman Matt Lawrence. Throw in athletic do-everything forwards DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons and this is a team that could cause serious problems late in the season.

2) Michigan State was perhaps a Drew Neitzel stomach bug away from winning this tournament, albeit at the expense of UCLA that had injury issues if its own. Regardless, the Spartans showed well in this tournament and given their young talent, figure to be a team that will improve over the course of the season. Freshmen Kalin Lucas, Chris Allen and Durrell Summers give this team a big more balanced scoring punch than they had last year, and that combined with Neitzel and talented sophomore forward Raymar Morgan could make for the best offensive Spartan team in some time. Throw in the typical Izzo grinders in the middle and these guys will be a tough out.

1) The coming-out party for Kevin Love is complete, and despite his excellent showing, these Bruins go home a runner-up were it not for the play of role players like Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Alfred Aboya, Lorenzo Mata-Real and Russell Westbrook. UCLA’s experience shone through in a tough second-half comeback against Michigan State Tuesday night, as they outscored a game Spartan team by 16 in the final 20 minutes, after a uninspiring first half performance. But, of course, the big story is Love, who really did live up to expectations, proving himself a phenomenal rebounder, a skilled passer, a wily scrapper in the post, a tough competitor and a player seemingly beyond his years. After the Bruin offense struggled in the first half Tuesday, the ball was rerouted through Love a bit more often in the second half, and the offense clicked, highlighted by a couple nice high-low passes from Love to teammates. Considering the success that UCLA experienced without point guard Darren Collison, UCLA definitely looks like a very strong contender to be dancing deep into March, and even early April.

Wednesday, November 14, 2007

ACC College Basketball Preview

Predicted Order of Finish

With the majority of a team that was a second-half fade away from a Final Four appearance back, North Carolina clearly remains the team to be in this conference. Beyond that, Duke and NC State look to be the only real viable contenders to the throne, but a notch below the Tar Heels. The next tier consists of a group of six or seven schools who will be competing for perhaps three spots in the Big Dance. I give the nod to Maryland, Virginia and Clemson there, but it certainly wouldn’t surprise me if somebody like Boston College gutted one out and snuck in, or if Jack McClinton led Miami to the dance.

1. North Carolina
2. Duke
3. NC State
4. Maryland
5. Virginia
6. Clemson
7. Miami
8. Boston College
9. Virginia Tech
10. Georgia Tech
11. Florida St
12. Wake Forest

Preseason All-Conference
First Team
F Tyler Hansbrough Jr UNC
G Jack McClinton Jr Miami
G Sean Singletary Sr Virginia
F Brandon Costner So NC St
G DeMarcus Nelson Sr Duke

Second Team
G Tywon Lawson So UNC
F Deron Washington Sr Va Tech
F James Mays Sr Clemson
G Tyrese Rice Jr BC
F James Gist Sr Maryland

All Freshman Team
F Kyle Singler Duke
G Taylor King Duke
G Jeff Jones Virginia
F JJ Hickson NC St
C Solomon Alabi Florida St

Top 5 Out of Conference Games
11/17 Virginia @ Arizona
11/28 UNC @ Ohio St
11/28 NC State @ Michigan St
12/20 Duke @ Pitt
1/1 Clemson @ Alabama

Top 5 In-Conference Games
2/6 Duke @ UNC
2/20 UNC @ NC State
3/2 Clemson @ Maryland
3/5 Duke @ Virginia
3/8 UNC @ Duke

Predicted NCAA Tournament Invites (6)
UNC
Duke
NC St
Maryland
Virginia
Clemson

Monday, November 12, 2007

Pac-10 College Basketball Preview

Predicted Order of Finish

This is always a crapshoot, but this season perhaps more than usual. I think UCLA is the clear-cut favorite, but I don’t think anyone would be surprised to see Arizona or Washington St or Oregon or Stanford win this thing. Further, beyond the one spot, everything is real tight. I expect teams one through nine to be tough outs every single time and legitimate contenders to make the NCAA tournament (although Arizona St, and maybe even Washington are a little bit longer shots than the rest) and I expect a strong six teams to eventually earn tickets to the big dance, with the seventh place team sitting on the fence with an argument as to why they should get in too. About the only real sure thing here is that Oregon St is the odds on favorite to finish last in the conference.

But, since meaningless conjecture seems to be the hip thing, I’ll throw my hat in the ring too.

1. UCLA – gotta be the favorite, but one key injury could certainly change things in such a competitive league.
2. Arizona – there is really no reason to pick this team for this spot given their recent history, but I think Chase Budinger is a special player and there is no doubt they have the talent to wind up here.
3. Washington St – most of the key pieces return for Tony Bennett, but these guys aren’t going to sneak up on anybody this year, not that they need to.
4. Oregon – arguably the MVP in last year’s conference is gone, but plenty of veteran talent remains.
5. Stanford – a big question mark in Brook Lopez and his academic situation, but an even bigger question at the point guard position.
6. USC – this may be a little low for this team, but somebody has got to finish down here. Lots of talent in OJ Mayo and Taj Gibson and Dwight Lewis and Daniel Hackett, but they sure are missing some key players from last year’s successful tournament run.
7. Cal – I’ll match Cal as the potential 7th place team in the Pac-10 against any other conference’s potential 7th place team. Hell, I’ll match them against a 7th place team in any other conference in any other year in history.
8. Washington – Coming off a very disappointing year last season, there is still a lot of potential up here if they can get more consistent performances from Justin Dentmon and their young players Quincy Poindexter and Adrian Oliver.
9. Arizona St – Herb Sendek has his first major recruit coming to Tempe in James Harden, and the talent level is definitely up from last year, however there is just too much talent above them in this conference for the Devils to make any significant move up the standings this year
10. Oregon St – the cupboard is more or less empty and Jay John is getting his resume prepared

Preseason All-Conference
First Team

G Darren Collison Jr UCLA
G Kyle Weaver Sr. Wash St
F Chase Budinger So Arizona
F Kevin Love Fr. UCLA
C Brook Lopez So Stanford

Second Team
G Derrick Low Sr Wash St
G Bryce Taylor Sr Oregon
F Quincy Poindexter So Washington
F Taj Gibson So USC
C Devon Hardin Sr Cal

All Freshman Team
G OJ Mayo USC
G Jerryd Bayless Arizona
G James Harden Arizona St
F Kevin Love UCLA
F Davon Jefferson USC

Top 5 Out of Conference Games

11/25 Arizona @ Kansas – the opener of the inaugural Pac-10/Big 12 challenge should be a battle.
11/29 Oregon @ Kansas St – we get to see Oregon on the road and the talented Kansas St freshmen.
12/2 Texas @ UCLA – UCLA’s most significant non-conference game.
12/4 USC @ Memphis – part of a rough three day stretch for USC that also includes a visit from Kansas to the Galen Center
12/29 Arizona @ Memphis – you gotta give credit to Arizona for consistently scheduling one of the nation’s toughest non-conference slates.

Top 5 In Conference Ganes

1/5 Washington St @ Washington – this game should give us a good preview of where these two teams, especially the Huskies, stand early in the season.
1/12 WSU @ UCLA – perhaps the two pre-season conference favorites hooking up in Pauley.
1/19 USC @ UCLA – the cross-town rivalry ignited anew behind two superstar freshmen.
1/26 Stanford @ Cal – this season’s Bay Area rivalry may be the most heated in years.
3/2 UCLA @ Arizona – as the season winds down and March starts up, the Pac-10’s biggest basketball rivalry tips off at the McKale center.

Predicted NCAA Tournament Invites (6)
UCLA
Arizona
Washington St
Oregon
Stanford
USC