Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Open letter to the West Coast Conference

Just wanted to drop a note regarding the WCC basketball scheduling this season.

I've noticed that quite a few of the big games that hold interest for college basketball fans both regionally and nationally are scheduled on Thursday nights (St. Mary's/San Diego 1/22, SMC/Gonzaga 1/29, GU/SMC 2/12, and USD/SMC 2/19).

I'm sure part of the scheduling of these games has to do with requests from ESPN, but given that your main regional competition in college basketball is the Pac-10, and given that the Pac-10 has historically had Thursday/Saturday games, I'm thinking it is fairly unwise to try to directly compete with the big boys.

While someone like me will go out of his way to be able to take a look at those four games I mentioned (among others), the vast majority of west coast basketball fans are going to be tuned in to watch things like the SoCal schools against the Washington schools on 1/22, the Arizona schools against the Washington schools on 1/29, SoCals vs. Zona on 2/12 and again the SoCals vs the Washingtons on 2/19.

You are really limiting your potential audience by trying to go head-to-head against the Pac-10 schools on their traditional game nights. Much better for you to carve out your own identity. In years past, you had the 9pm PST game on Big Monday, and while I can understand how that may limit your exposure outside of the west, at least you had your own stage. Perhaps even Friday night games (a relatively untapped night in college basketball scheduling) would be preferable than trying to have San Diego compete for viewers against UCLA and St. Mary's to compete for viewers against Stanford.

Either way, best of luck to your teams and your conference, but you've really got to make it easier for your fans to be able to watch your games.

Thursday, December 4, 2008

76 Classic Review

Year two of the 76 Classic (known as the Anaheim Classic in its first incarnation) showcased eight NCAA teams who all have hopes (of varying legitimacy) of playing in the NCAA tournament in March. The tournament, played in front of a sparse “crowd” at the Anaheim Convention Center over Thanksgiving weekend, was won by Wake Forest who defeated Baylor in an entertaining final Sunday night. While there are more than three months remaining until we find out who will advance to the Big Dance, we did get some answers and some clues as to what to expect from these teams over those months.

1. Wake Forest came away with the championship, after looking fairly underwhelming in the first two rounds. They were outrebounded in the first game by an undersized Cal State Fullerton team and then outrebounded by a significant amount in the semifinal by UTEP. However, the Demon Deacons enjoyed a talent gap over both teams and came away with wins despite uninspiring performances. However, in the final against Baylor, Wake looked every bit the team that had its fans excited in the offseason. They attacked the boards with abandon, getting double-digit rebound games from James Johnson, L.D. Williams and heralded freshman Al-Farouq Aminu, and dominated the game in the paint, coming away with a 13-point victory despite hitting only one three-pointer on the evening. Wake Forest does have some questions that need to be answered before they can be considered a threat to ACC rivals North Carolina and Duke. They don’t seem to have a consistent three-point threat, point guard Jeff Teague turns the ball over a bit too much and has some trouble getting the offense started, and their depth is somewhat suspect. However, they have a ton of talent. Johnson is a highly skilled athlete with a variety of talents all over the floor, Aminu is bound to improve by leaps and bounds as the season progresses and Teague can certainly put the ball in the hoop. There will be ups and downs for this team throughout the year, but they are capable of playing with almost anyone in the country on a given good night.

2. Baylor in many ways was the opposite of Wake Forest in this tournament. The Bears looked mighty impressive in the first two rounds, but then had their weaknesses exposed in the championship by Wake Forest. However, given that the Bears only shot 8-31 from three-point range in the final, missing multiple open looks throughout the game, an occurrence that will not be repeated often, Baylor has to be pretty enthusiastic about their chances in the Big Twelve. While Baylor will have to deal with questions about their interior game and rebounding ability, there is no doubt that they have very skilled players in the backcourt. Curtis Jerrels, Henry Dugat, LaceDarius Dunn and Tweeny Carter can definitely present matchup problems for most teams they will face. However, the more three and four guard lineups the Bears field, the more they will have to rely on players like Kevin Rogers and impressive freshman Quincy Acy to carry the load on the glass, something they were unable to do in the final.

3. While Arizona State came away with what had to be a disappointing third place finish, the Sun Devils look poised to compete for a Pac-Ten championship. The Devils wrapped blowouts of Charlotte and UTEP around a loss to Baylor in the semifinal round, a game in which the Bears pulled away with a 14-0 run near the start of the second half with the ASU starters on the bench, and withstood a barrage of ASU threes at the end to hold on. James Harden was perhaps the best player of the tournament, as was likely expected, after games of 15, 32 and then 40 points in the third-place match. Arizona State still remains a team based around Harden and senior big man Jeff Pendergraph, but the Devils did get some good production out of guard Ty Abbot, wing Rihards Kuksiks and point guard Derek Glasser, who has turned into a very effective operator of Herb Sendek’s offense. They still don’t get the ball to Pendergraph nearly enough, but if they ever do get him a sufficient number of touches, this could be a tough Devil team.

4. St. Mary’s got the tournament off to a poor start, laying a major stinker on Thanksgiving morning against UTEP, turning the ball over 19 times and going a meager 3 of 24 from 3-point range (“led” by a startling 0-9 from 3-point land and a 1-4 assist to turnover ration from Patty Mills). The Gaels did gain some measure of redemption in their next two games, defeating Cal State Fullerton the next day, then withstanding a late charge by Providence to take the consolation bracket. However, despite some good things in those final two games, St. Mary’s fans have to be a little nervous about their backcourt should Mills run into an injury, some foul trouble or just a bad night. While there are some very good shooters in the backcourt, their ballhandling skills are not great and the Gaels can struggle a bit against defensive pressure. Their frontcourt tandem of Omar Samhan and Diamon Simpson remains imposing (and improved), but in order to compete for a WCC title against the ever tough Gonzaga Bulldogs, Randy Bennett’s squad will need to get stronger play from its guards.

5. UTEP leaves Anaheim with a 1-2 record over the course of the weekend, but it has to be considered a good 1-2 despite a bad loss to Arizona State on Sunday. The Miners really took it to St. Mary’s in the first game of the tournament, then came back 24 hours later to outwork Wake Forest (outrebounding the Deacons by 17, including a 24-1 advantage on the offensive glass) only to lose a tough one at the end. UTEP is definitely not lacking for talent (Stefon Jackson and Randy Culpepper are two guards who can play with just about anyone in the country) or size (three players who get regular time are 6-11 or taller), but they have been a little short on experience. If for no other reason, the experience of getting to play St. Mary’s, Wake Forest and Arizona State over the course of three days should be a major boon to a rising program.

6. It is a good thing that Providence rallied to score the final 10 points of their consolation semifinal against Charlotte on Friday night, or that would have been an awful long flight for an 0-3 weekend. As it is, Friar fanatics have some reason to have some optimism as their team has shown some improvement under new head coach Keno Davis. Providence struggled in its opening round game against Baylor, then got a spark from sophomore reserve swingman Marshon Brooks down the stretch of its game against Charlotte to salvage its only win of the tournament. On Sunday, the Friars got outscored by 20 points in their first half against St. Mary’s, but put on a furious second half rally to get within 6, which was the final margin. The Friars definitely have some strong talent on the team, but given the beasts they’ll have to fight in the Big East, this seems like more of a season to grow on for Davis and his squad.

7. Cal State Fullerton got to sleep in their own beds on the night before Thanksgiving, and that may have had something to do with their ability to put a scare into favorite Wake Forest on the opening day of the tournament. Led by senior guard Josh Akognon, the Titans cut a 14-point second half Demon Deacon lead to 3, but were not able to finish the deal. After a big loss to St. Mary’s on Friday, Fullerton rebounded to knock off Charlotte in overtime to salvage one win over the weekend. While Fullerton took a few lumps from some of the bigger boys, they look to be a strong contender in the Big West. Athletic frontcourt players like Gerard Anderson, Aaron Thompson, Pap Guisse and Ray Miller provide a strong compliment to Akognon’s excellent scoring ability, and could provide the Titans a springboard to the big dance.

8. Charlotte came away from Anaheim with an 0-3 record, a losing streak of six games, and some wounds to lick, but there is some hope for an underachieving squad. Down the stretch of regulation in their game against Cal State Fullerton on Sunday, An’Juan Wilderness was not only the best player on the floor, he was one of the better players of the tournament. He followed Josh Akognon all over the floor, he grabbed rebounds, he made timely assists, he scrapped on the floor for loose balls and generally willed his 49ers back into the game. And, frankly, the 49ers at this point have nowhere to go but up. However, Wilderness, together with athletic frontline players like Charlie Coley and Lamont Mack, three-point threats like Rashad Coleman and Ian Anderson, and quick little point guard DiJuan Harris do form a solid nucleus for a Charlotte team that should see more success over the course of the season than they have had so far.

All in all, quite a fun tournament, with several very good games and eight compelling teams. Given the strong field announced for the 2009 tournament (UCLA, Clemson, Minnesota, Texas A&M, West Virginia, Butler Portland, and Long Beach State), this looks like a strong tournament to look forward to in the future.

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Pac-10 2008-09 College Basketball Preview

Predicted Order of Finish

After last’s season’s epic battle between perhaps the strongest field of teams in the conference’s history (oh, and Oregon State also), the Pac-10 looks to be down a bit from last year. However, the conference still has potential national championship contenders, a bevy of tournament teams, and a couple of teams who would seem to be down, but who you don’t want to get caught sleeping against. Oh. And Oregon State also.

1. UCLA – champion until someone beats them, and the way they keep reloading talent, beating the champ continues to be tough.

2. USC – the trip down south is going to be a tough one for the rest of the Pac-10 this year. A superstar freshman, some incoming transfers and newly eligble players and returning veterans makes this a deep Trojan squad.

3. Washington – despite this team having shown no reason to be picked this high, there is plenty of talent on this Husky squad, and if they can get contributions from just a couple of their guards, they have the talent to be an upper-division finisher and maybe even come within a stones throw of the conference championship.

4. Arizona State – Herb Sendek has this program going in the right direction, has an all-league performer or two and plenty of players to surround them

5. Washington State – despite losing three of the most successful players in this program’s history, Tony Bennett has enough veteran leadership returning and an impressive collection of newcomers to keep the Cougs in the upper division of the Pac-10

6. Arizona – Brandon Jennings will be this team’s savior. Or not. But at least Lute Olson is back. Not so fast. There is (barely) enough talent here to make a run at an NCAA tournament bid, but the story of the season for the ‘Cats is what could have been. And missing out on a couple of Jrue Holliday/Brandon Jennings matchups is no fun for basketball fans to think about either.

7. Oregon – Ernie Kent loses a bunch of underachievers and replaces them with a strong recruiting class, but this team is probably a year away from being a threat again.

8. Cal – Mike Montgomery in Berkeley. Good heavens. That alone ought to be enough to give the Bears an extra win or two (perhaps one of those even in Maples), but he doesn’t really have the horses to contend this year.

9. Stanford – Trent Johnson gets out just in time, right after the Lopez twins. And while this is still a pretty strong 9th place team, the lack of a front court will do them in.

10. Oregon State – Obligatory reference to Barack Obama’s brother-in-law complete, I expect this team to win a game this year. Two wins? Don’t push your luck.

Preseason All-Conference

First Team
PG Darren Collison Sr UCLA
SG James Harden So Arizona State
SG Jrue Holliday Fr UCLA
SF Chase Budinger Jr Arizona
PF Jon Brockman Sr Washington

Second Team
PG Taylor Rochestie Sr Washington State
SG Demar DeRozan Fr USC
G Patrick Christopher Jr Cal
PF Taj Gibson Jr USC
PF Jeff Pendergraph Sr Arizona State

Third Team
PG Daniel Hackett Jr USC
SG Josh Shipp Sr UCLA
SF Lawrence Hill Sr Stanford
PF Jordan Hill Jr Arizona
C Aron Baynes Sr Washington State

All Freshman Team
G Jrue Holliday UCLA
SG Demar DeRozan USC
SG Klay Thompson Washington State
C J’Mison Morgan UCLA
C Michael Dunigan Oregon

Preseason Tournament Tie-Ins

Arizona – NIT Season Tip-Off
Potential Opponents: UAB/Santa Clara, Oklahoma/Davidson, Purdue/Boston College

Arizona State – 76 Classic
Potential Opponents: Charlotte, Providence/Baylor, St. Mary’s/Wake Forest

Oregon – Maui Invitational
Potential Opponents: Alabama, North Carolina, Texas/Notre Dame

UCLA – Coaches vs. Cancer
Potential Opponents: Michigan, Duke/Southern Illinois

USC – Puerto Rico Tip-Off
Potential Opponents: Seton Hall, Memphis, Xavier/Virginia Tech

Washington – CBE Classic
Potential Opponents: Kansas, Syracuse/Florida

Washington State – Legend’s Classic
Potential Opponents: Mississippi State, Pitt/Texas Tech

Top 10 Non- Conference Games

11/18 Arizona State @ San Diego State
Not a particularly strong non-conference schedule for ASU, so this is a must win

12/4 UCLA @ Texas
The Longhorns perhaps not as strong as last year, but this is still a tough roadie for the Bruins.

12/4 USC @ Oklahoma
Major battle between two teams who figure to be major players in March.

12/6 Baylor @ Washington State
This was a fun game last year, but we’ll get a chance to see what kind of team the Cougs are early this season.

12/10 Gonzaga @ Washington State
Another big test for the Cougs against a team with big expectations this season

12/14 Gonzaga @ Arizona
Never let it be said that Lute Olson has ever dodged tough opponents.

12/17 St. Mary’s @ Oregon
Oregon gets a chance at revenge, except St. Mary’s might be better than last year and Oregon is not as good.

12/23 Kansas @ Arizona

Nothing different here, just the Wildcats playing another outrageously difficult schedule.

12/27 Washington State @ LSU
LSU isn’t all that good, but this may well be a big game on the Wazzu resume come March.

2/7 Notre Dame @ UCLA
The only Pac-10 midseason non-conference game of any importance.

Predicted NCAA Tournament Invites (6)
UCLA, USC, Washington, Arizona State, Washington State, Arizona

SEC 2008-09 College Basketball Preview

Predicted Order of Finish

Once again, the meat of the SEC schedule will take place on the East side of the bracket. While the East features quite a few teams hoping to stick around long enough to make some noise in March, the winner of the West figures to be the team that can out-struggle the opposition to a .500 record. Perhaps finishing a game over .500 earns the West winner an NCAA tournament berth.

SEC East
1. Tennessee – Bruce Pearl loses two senior guards to graduation and two other major contributors to immaturity, and yet this Vol team may be every bit as dangerous as the team from the last two years.2. Florida – Nick Calathes leads the charge for a very young, but talented Gator squad that should return to the NCAA tournament following a one-year hiatus.
3. Kentucky – A rough start to the Billy Gillespie era in Lexington, but Patrick Patterson will lead the Wildcats’ charge back to national prominence.
4. Vanderbilt – While this will be an extraordinarily young Commodore team (no seniors, two juniors), the youngsters have a lot of potential, and Kevin Stallings will make the most of it.
5. South Carolina – Darrin Horn takes over a very small team in Columbia. A couple players under 6-foot in the backcourt, a center at 6-7 and not much other size or depth will doom the ‘Cocks to a lower division finish.
6. Georgia – There is always some kind of drama going on for the Bulldogs under Dennis Felton. Players injured, dismissed or otherwise underachieving. No reason to believe this year will be any different.

SEC West
1. Alabama – If Ronald Steele can return to a modicum of health, he is surrounded by enough talent to return the Tide to the tourney. If not, well, they’re still probably good enough to win the West.
2. Mississippi State – Jarvis Varnado will anchor the Bulldogs defense with his intimidating presence, but they will need to find offense somewhere.
3. Mississippi – Andy Kennedy loses some major contributors, but the combination of some excellent returning guards and some talented freshman will keep the Rebels competitive.
4. LSU – Trent Johnson takes over a mixed bag of a roster in Baton Rouge. While there is talent, the lack of consistent depth may be a problem.
5. Arkansas – After losing a boatload of players to graduation, John Pelfrey had to kick Patrick Beverly off the team in the offseason, leaving a very young Razorback squad behind.
6. Auburn – Injuries, graduations and dismissals have sapped a lot of the promise out of Jeff Lebo’s roster. Perhaps the newcomers will change the direction of the program

Preseason All-Conference

First Team
PG Nick Calathes So Florida
SG Tasmin Mitchell Sr LSU
SF Tyler Smith Jr Tennessee
PF Patrick Patterson So Kentucky
C Jarvis Varnado Jr Mississippi State

Second Team
PG Ronald Steele Sr Alabama
PG Devan Downey Jr South Carolina
SF Alonzo Gee Sr Alabama
SF Scotty Hopson Fr Tennessee
C Andrew Ogilvy So Vanderbilt

Third Team
PG Bobby Maze Jr Tennessee
SG Eniel Polynice Jr Mississippi
SF Dominique Archie Jr South Carolina
PF Michael Washington Jr Arkansas
C Wayne Chism Jr Tennessee

All Freshman Team
PG DeAndre Liggins Kentucky
SG Rotnei Clarke Arkansas
SF Scotty Hopson Tennessee
SF Lance Goulbourne Vanderbilt
PF Jamychal Green Alabama

Preseason Tournament Tie-Ins

Alabama – Maui Invitational
Possible Opponents: Oregon , North Carolina/Chaminade, Notre Dame/St. Joe’s/Texas

Florida – CBE Classic
Possible Opponents: Syracuse, Kansas/Washington

Georgia – NIT Season Tip-Off
Possible Opponents: Eastern Michigan, Purdue, Boston College, Oklahoma/Davidson/Arizona

Kentucky – Las Vegas Invitational
Possible Opponents: Kansas State, Iowa/West Virginia

Mississippi State – Legend’s Classic
Possible Opponents: Washington State, Pitt/Texas Tech

Tennessee – Old Spice Classic
Possible Opponents: Siena, Georgetown/Wichita State, Maryland/Michigan State/Gonzaga/Oklahoma State

Vanderbilt – Cancun Challenge
Possible Opponents: Drake, Virginia Commonwealth/New Mexico

Top 10 Non- Conference Games
11/18 Kentucky @ North Carolina
So, no one expects Kentucky to beat Carolina. It’s still UK/UNC.
12/6 Miami @ Kentucky
The Wildcats get a shot at an ACC team that is more their speed.
12/7 Florida @ Florida State
Not much of a non-conference schedule for the Gators again, but this in-state matchup should provide fireworks.
12/13 Texas A&M @ Alabama
This is the kind of game Alabama needs to win in order to ensure a return to the NCAA tournament.
12/16 Marquette @ Tennessee
Tennessee has a brutal non-conference schedule, and this should be a high-paced affair.
12/18 Mississippi @ Louisville
One heck of a tough road trip for the Rebels, but a game that will provide a good gauge for how far they have left to go.
1/3 Tennessee @ Kansas
Tough roadie to open the new year for the Vols against the defending champion.
1/6 Texas @ Arkansas
A border war, but the Hogs may be overmatched here.
1/7 Gonzaga @ Tennessee
Tennessee hosts a Zag team with eyes on a bigger prize than the WCC title.
1/24 Memphis @ Tennessee
If this game is anything like last year’s battle, we will be in for a treat.

Predicted NCAA Tournament Invites (5):
Tennessee, Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Alabama

Arizona Basketball

I'm beginning to think the whole program had a stroke.

Got around to watching the NIT Regional Final the other night against UAB. Now, without a doubt, this is not a particularly good Arizona team. Chase Budinger is very talented and seems to "get it" a bit more this year than he has in the past. Jordan Hill is a good big guy, and Nic Wise is a decent point guard (although a little to wild and inconsistent for my tastes), but beyond that, there ain't a whole lot of talent here and even less good depth.

So, UAB is going strong in the first half and the start of the 2nd, build lead up as far as 13 or so, but Budinger and Hill start to get serious offensively at least (still, far too many defensive lapses for both of those guys) and little by little they begin chipping the lead down, having to resort to fouling the Blazers a bit at the end, until it is a one possession game with ~30 seconds to go (forgive any errors in my timeline here, I'm going by pure hazy memory) and an Arizona freshman at the line. He makes the first FT to pull the Wildcats w/in 2, but misses the 2nd. UAB's stud guard Vaden grabs the rebound, but another UofA freshman, Fogg (who had played sparingly if at all until that point) steals the ball from Vaden and puts it in to tie the game.

MAJOR SCREWUP #1:
However, as UAB is inbounding the ball, Fogg apparently thinks the Wildcats are still behind, so he fouls immediately (and several Wildcats fall to the ground in horror, the coaching staff throws their hands up in the air in unison and the crowd is stunned).

However, the karma gods are smiling kindly on Fogg, as the UAB player misses the front end of the 1&1 and Zona rebounds with perhaps 20 seconds remaining. They call a timeout and set up a final play for the win.

Now, Budinger and Hill have been more or less unstoppable for the last 8 minutes of the game or so. They've each got a significant height advantage on the UAB players guarding them, but what does the UofA coaching staff call for?

MAJOR SCREWUP #2:
The smallest player on the floor, 5-9 Nic Wise pulls up, shoots a tough jumper with 4 or 5 seconds left, it misses and UAB grabs the rebound, turns to head up court in order to throw up a hail mary last second shot, only to be interrupted by:

MAJOR SCREWUP #3:
Jamelle Horne, sophomore power forward for the Wildcats, for some reason diving at the UAB shooter, grabbing the back of his jersey and committing an intentional foul with under a second on the clock and UAB still in the backcourt, sending UAB to the line for 2 shots, plus the ball.

UAB makes one free throw, advances to New York and Arizona goes home with a well-earned loss.

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Big East 2008-09 College Basketball Preview

Predicted Order of Finish

This much is clear in the Big East: there is no shortage of contenders for the regular season championship. While the teams that have been basement dwellers the last several years will continue to hang around down there, all the usual suspects are back with strong returning casts, new blood and hopes to be playing deep into March and beyond.

1. Notre Dame – This is the one team in the Big East that will look pretty much the same this year as it did last year. Rob Kurz is gone, but beyond that, the same talented faces remain and a great inside/outside combination highlighted by All-American candidate Luke Harangody will make this team a tough out every night.

2. Marquette – Tom Crean is gone, but a lot of talent remains. Despite being a little thin and undersized up front, there is not a team in the country with the type of back court depth that Buzz Williams’ squad possesses.

3. Louisville – A ton of talent here, including freshman superstar Samardo Samuels. Plus, this team returns several upperclassmen who flirted briefly with the NBA before returning for the Cardinals, and they get the benefit of addition-by-subtraction as Derrick Caracter and his problems are no longer around.

4. Georgetown – The Hibbert/Green team is no longer. Role players like Ewing, Rivers, and Wallace have moved on to other pastures, and yet JT3 still has plenty of talent, including an infusion of young, talented big men Greg Monroe, Henry Sims and Julian Vaughn.

5. Pitt – A lot of Pitt’s prognosis depends on the status of Levance Fields’ left foot. Fields underwent his second surgery of the year on the foot just before the start of practice and he is not expected back until the season is underway. However, if Fields is healthy by the time the Panthers start Big East play, this team can play with anyone.

6. Connecticut – Nothing can ever be easy for the Huskies, it seems. With PG AJ Price recovering from a devastating knee injury in the first round of last March’s NCAA tournament, Stanley Robinson’s academic future in question, and incoming freshman Nate Miles now matriculating at the University of Southern Idaho after getting expelled from school , there are some questions in Storrs. However, plenty of talent remains, and if some of the early season questions are answered to Jim Calhoun’s satisfaction, the Huskies will again contend,

7. West Virginia – Bob Huggins continues remaking the Mountaineers in his image, and incoming freshman like Devin Ebanks, Kevin Jones and Truck Bryant will help. Throw in returners like Alex Ruoff, Da’Sean Butler and Joe Mazulla, and Huggins will have his team dancing into March again.

8. Providence – Keno Davis takes over a team that has underachieved, but there are plenty of pieces here. Senior forward Jeff McDermott has a varied skill set, and combined with back court players like Jeff Xavier and Sharaud Curry, the Friars could surprise.

9. Villanova – The fact that a strong Villanova team is being picked 9th in their conference should tell you a little something about how deep the Big East is this year. It is just as likely that the Wildcats will challenge for the top spot, flush with talent both on the perimeter and the interior.

10. Syracuse – After a nightmare season in 2007-08, when the Orange were down to six scholarship players at one point during the Big East season, Jim Boeheim welcomes back guards Eric Devendorf and Andy Rautins from knee injuries. Sophomore point Jonny Flynn, junior wing Paul Harris and a trio of rookie small forwards should make this season more successful than last, and yet the competition around them is even stronger. But, if things break right here, the Orange could be among the big boys in March again.

11. Seton Hall – Some talent on the perimeter, a bunch of big stiffs in the middle and the Pirates mark the delineating point between the contenders and the pretenders in the Big East. They’ll fight with DePaul for the title of top pretender, and will surprise a team or two.

12. DePaul – Sophomores Dar Tucker and Mac Koshwal will team with senior point Jabari Currie to lead a dangerous team whose best days are ahead of them. Don’t look past this team, but probably not a contender in a league this tough.

13. Rutgers – McDonald’s All-American freshman Mike Rosario will put some fight in the Scarlet Knights, and the rest of a pretty strong freshman class will make this the best Rutgers team in quite some time. Just good enough to finish near the bottom of a loaded Big East.

14. St. John’s – While talented enough to finish a few slots up this list, history tells us that Norm Roberts’ squad will finish somewhere right around here. And Roberts will be looking for work in April.

15. Cincinnati – The Bearcats lost incoming freshman Cashmere Wright to an ACL injury in practice, and a hopeful season in Cincinnati turns sour quick. Once again the Bearcat offense will feature Deonta Vaughn, and not a whole lot else.

16. South Florida – But a strong 16th. There will be a ton of new faces for the Bulls, including Georgia transfer Mike Mercer, but not enough talent and not enough size, to be much of a contender.

Preseason All-Conference
First Team
PG Lavance Fields Sr Pitt
SG Jerel McNeal Sr Marquette
SG Scottie Reynolds Jr Villanova
PF Luke Harangody Jr Notre Dame
C Hasheem Thabeet Jr Connecticut

Second Team
PG AJ Price Sr Connecticut
SG Deonta Vaughn Jr Cincinnati
SF Geoff McDermott Sr Providence
PF Sam Young Sr Pitt
PF Samardo Samuels Fr Louisville

Third Team
PG Jonny Flynn So Syracuse
SF Earl Clark Jr Louisville
SF DaJuan Summers Jr Georgetown
PF DeJuan Blair So Pitt
C Greg Monroe Fr Georgetown

All Freshman Team
PG Kemba Walker Connecticut
SG Mike Rosario Rutgers
PF Samardo Samuels Louisville
PF Kevin Jones West Virginia
C Greg Monroe Georgetown

Preseason Tournament Tie-Ins

Connecticut – Paradise Jam
Potential Opponents: La Salle, Southern Miss/Miami, San Diego/Wisconsin

Georgetown – Old Spice Classic
Possible Opponents: Wichita State, Tennessee/Siena, Maryland/Michigan State/Gonzaga/Oklahoma State

Notre Dame – Maui Invitational
Possible Opponents: Indiana, St. Joe’s/Texas, North Carolina/Oregon/Alabama

Pittsburgh – Legend’s Classic
Possible Opponents: Texas Tech, Mississippi State/Washington State

Providence – Anaheim Classic
Possible Opponents: Baylor, Arizona State/Charlotte, Wake Forest/St. Mary’s

Seton Hall – Puerto Rico Tip-Off
Possible Opponents: USC, Memphis, Missouri/Xavier/Virginia Tech

Syracuse – CBE Classic
Possible Opponents: Florida, Washington/Kansas

West Virginia – Las Vegas Invitational
Possible Opponents – Iowa, Kentucky/Kansas State

Top 10 Non- Conference Games

12/6 Marquette @ Wisconsin
Big intrastate, interconference matchup between national powers.

12/9 Villanova @ Texas
The Wildcats travel down south for a big early season test.

12/9 Davidson @ West Virginia
The Mountaineers host last season’s Cinderella, and a team who will be plenty dangerous this year as well.

12/13 Memphis @ Georgetown
An intriguing matchup between young athletic squads.

12/16 Marquette @ Tennessee
Another tough early season test for Buzz Williams’ new charges.

12/17 Siena @ Pittsburgh
Pitt hosts one of this year’s top mid-majors.

12/20 Connecticut @ Gonzaga
The Huskies go across country to visit a strong Zag team.

12/20 Syracuse @ Memphis
This intersectional battle should have no lack of highlight reel fodder.

1/17 Georgetown @ Duke
An intriguing battle between traditional basketball powers.

2/7 Notre Dame @ UCLA
One of the final non-conference battles of the regular season between two potential national championship contenders.

Predicted NCAA Tournament Invites (9):

Notre Dame, Marquette, Louisville, Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Connecticut, West Virginia, Providence, Villanova

ACC 2008-09 College Basketball Preview

Predicted Order of Finish

Things at the very top seem pretty easy to predict. With most publications picking North Carolina as the national number one, it is pretty hard to pick them anywhere besides number one in their own conference. From there, things get a little muddier. Duke seems to be a pretty clear-cut pick from second, but there are a handful of teams that will push them, and even the lower end of the conference has some strong teams that make this a deep conference, rather than a top-heavy one.

1. North Carolina – national player of the year Tyler Hansbrough returns for his senior year, and brings along not only almost all of his teammates from last year’s Final Four run, but an impressive freshman class as well. How can they not be the ACC favorite?

2. Duke – a good team by most standards, but by Duke standards, a team with a lot to prove. They’ve got some experience, some good athletes and, of course, a great coaching staff, but there are holes up front that seem unlikely to be filled. There athleticism and backcourt, however, should be good enough to get them a second place ACC finish.

3. Wake Forest – they are certainly young, but these Deacons are talented. Last year’s youngsters got plenty of experience on an under-talented team, and the combination of the returning talent plus one of the most exciting recruiting classes in the nation vaults this team to contender status immediately. While youth could cost them a spot or two, talent might win out.

4. Clemson – coming off an exciting season, as well as a maddening one, Clemson loses three major contributors. However, plenty of talent remains. They will need to make their free, though, something they had a ton of trouble with last year.

5. Miami – Jack McClinton may well be the most underrated guard in America, and despite plenty of struggles in finding the right backcourt mate for him the past few years, the Hurricanes look poised to make a good run this season.

6. Florida State – another exciting freshman class in the ACC gives the Seminoles a bit of confidence heading into the season. Combined with returning starters Toney Douglas and Uche Echefu, as well as some frontcourt beef, Florida State looks poised to returns to the NCAA tournament.

7. Virginia Tech – there may not be a lot of flash on this Hokie team, but almost everyone returns from last year’s non-descript 4th place team. They are a bit undersized in the frontcourt, but have enough athleticism to hang in there with most teams. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if they finish even higher.

8. Maryland – Greivis Vasquez and Steve Bla…errr Eric Hayes return for their third seasons in College Park along with a whole bunch of other question marks. If the Terrapins can get some production from Sophs Cliff Tucker and Braxton Dupree, this team is capable of knocking off many teams, however they may be a little too thin up front to compete consistently.

9. Georgia Tech – not enough depth to get up and down the floor like Paul Hewitt would like. The Ramblin’ Wreck seems doomed to a lower division finish.

10. Boston College – Tyrese Rice will provide plenty of scoring, but the lack of size up front will be a problem throughout the season.

11. Virginia – a strong three-man freshman class will give this program a much needed infusion of talent, and combined with a handful of talented returnees, the Cavs will be a tough out.

12. NC State – the Wolfpack are more talented than a last-place team, but continued question marks at the point and underachievement up front are not a good combination.

Preseason All-Conference
First Team
PG Tyrese Rice Sr Boston College
SG Jack McClinton Sr Miami
SF A.D. Vasallo Sr Virginia Tech
SF Al-Farouq Aminu Fr Wake Forest
C Tyler Hansbrough Sr North Carolina

Second Team
PG Ty Lawson Jr North Carolina
SG Greivis Vasquez Jr Maryland
SF Danny Green Sr North Carolina
SF Gerald Henderson Jr Duke
PF James Johnson So Wake Forest

Third Team
PG Toney Douglas Sr Florida State
SG Wayne Ellington Jr North Carolina
SG KC Rivers Sr Clemson
SF Kyle Singler So Duke
PF Trevor Booker Jr Clemson

All Freshman Team

PG Iman Shumpert Georgia Tech
SF Chris Singleton Florida State
SF Dequan Jones Miami
SF Al-Farouq Aminu Wake Forest
PF Ed Davis North Carolina

Preseason Tournament Tie-Ins

Boston College– NIT Season Tip-Off
Potential Opponents: Loyola MD, St. John’s/Cornell, Purdue, Oklahoma/Arizona/Davidson

Duke – Coaches vs Cancer
Potential Opponents: Southern Illinois/UCLA

Maryland – Old Spice
Potential Opponents: Michigan State, Gonzaga/Oklahoma State, Tennessee/Siena/Wichita State/Georgetown

Miami – Paradise Jam
Potential Opponents: Southern Miss, Connecticut, San Diego

North Carolina – Maui Invitational
Potential Opponents: Chaminade, Oregon/Alabama, Texas/Notre Dame

Virginia Tech – Puerto Rico Tip-Off
Potential Opponents: Fairfield, Missouri/Xavier, Memphis/USC

Top 10 Non- Conference Games

11/18 Kentucky @ North Carolina
Okay, the game probably sounds a lot better than it will be. But still, UK/UNC.

11/28 Virginia @ Syracuse
We’ll get a good idea where the middle of the ACC is in this matchup.

12/2 Duke @ Purdue
One of the most appealing of the ACC/Big-10 Challenge games.

12/2 Ohio State @ Miami
Miami gets a good chance to show off their team on a national stage.

12/3 North Carolina @ Michigan State
The Tar Heels get a chance to seal another ACC win in the “Challenge” if it isn’t already sealed by then.

12/21 Pitt @ Florida State
The Seminoles host a Big East power, although the Panthers may still be without LaVance Fields at this point.

12/22 Georgia Tech @ USC
A tough road trip for the Jackets against a western power.

1/6 Clemson @ Alabama
Clemson tunes up for ACC play with a battle against possible SEC contender Alabama.

1/7 Davidson @ Duke
Duke’s strong non-conference schedule continues with a instate matchup with last year’s Cinderella.

1/17 Georgetown @ Duke
Duke’s final non-conference game should be a battle between national powers.

Predicted NCAA Tournament Invites (6):

North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Miami, Florida State

Monday, November 17, 2008

Big Ten 2008-09 College Basketball Preview

Predicted Order of Finish

In what looks to be a bit of a down year for the Big Ten, there is some strength at the top of the order. While Indiana is down and out for now, their fellow Hoosiers in West Lafayette have high hopes, and perennial Big Ten contender Michigan State looks as strong as they have been since their Final Four teams at the end of the last century.

1. Michigan State – While Drew Neitzel, the face of the Spartans for the last few years, is no longer around, plenty of veteran leadership plus a couple key newcomers make the Spartans a strong Final Four contender.

2. Purdue – The Baby Boilers are growing up, and they will be a tough out for all comers.

3. Wisconsin – It may not always be pretty for Bo Ryan’s club, but it will never be easy for Badger opponents.

4. Ohio State – Another year, another highly touted freshman center for Thad Matta and the Buckeyes. This year’s edition, BJ Mullens, will need to anchor an otherwise thin frontcourt.

5. Minnesota – Tubby Smith has only been in town for a year, but already the Gophers are reaping the benefits, in strong recruiting classes, more fan support and stronger fundamentals.

6. Michigan – While John Beilein will still field an undertalented bunch, the Wolverines should improve based mostly on more familiarity with the Beilein offense.

7. Illinois – While brighter days are on the horizon for the Illini, this year promises continued tough sledding.

8. Iowa – An infusion of six new players into Iowa City won’t keep Todd Lickliter’s team from a lower division finish.

9. Northwestern – Five freshman will make this Wildcat team a bigger and better squad. But there is still a long way to go.

10. Penn State – The combination of an undersized frontcourt and an underachieving backcourt could spell the end of Ed DeChellis’ run at Penn State.

11. Indiana – Tom Crean gets a pass this year. However, while the Hoosiers lack the talent to be a contender in the Big Ten, Crean will have them competing on a nightly basis.

Preseason All-Conference
First Team
PG Kalin Lucas So Michigan State
SG Manny Harris So Michigan
SF Jamelle Cornley Sr Penn State
SF Robbie Hummell So Purdue
PF Marcus Landry Sr Wisconsin

Second Team
PG Demetri McCamey So Illinois
PG Trevon Hughes Jr Wisconsin
SF Raymar Morgan Jr Michigan State
SF David Lighty Jr Ohio State
C BJ Mullens Fr Ohio State

Third Team
SG Evan Turner So Ohio State
SG E’Twaun Morre So Purdue
PF Cyrus Tate Sr Iowa
C Goran Suton Sr Michigan State
C JaJuan Johnson So Purdue

All Freshman Team
PG Verdell Jones Indiana
PF Delvon Roe Michigan State
PF Colton Iverson Minnesota
C Ralph Sampson III Minnesota
C BJ Mullens Ohio State

Preseason Tournament Tie-Ins

Indiana – Maui Invitational
Possible Opponents: Notre Dame, St. Joe’s/Texas, Oregon/Alabama

Iowa – Las Vegas Invitational
Possible Opponents: Kentucky, Kansas State, West Virginia

Michigan – Coaches vs. Cancer
Possible Opponents: UCLA, Southern Illinois/Duke

Michigan State – Old Spice
Possible Opponents: Maryland, Oklahoma St/Gonzaga, Wichita State/Georgetown/Siena/Tennessee

Purdue – NIT Season Tip-Off
Possible Opponents: Eastern Michigan, Georgia, Boston College/St. John’s, Oklahoma/Davidson/Arizona

Wisconsin – Paradise Jam
Potential Opponents: Iona, San Diego, UConn/Miami

Top 10 Non- Conference Games

12/2 Ohio State @ Miami
Not that anyone expects the Big Ten to win the Big Ten/ACC Challenge, but if there is a way the Big Ten gets it done, road games like this must go the Big Ten’s way.

12/2 Duke @ Purdue
A matchup of teams with March dreams in early December.

12/3 North Carolina @ Michigan State
Sure, the Big Ten/ACC Challenge will probably be decided by the time this game tips off, but this should be a phenomenal game, even if Tyler Hansbrough doesn’t play.

12/6 Ohio State @ Notre Dame
A nice Midwestern matchup that will give us a good measuring stick for B.J. Mullens’ progress.

12/6 Wisconsin @ Marquette
A big Wisconsin rivalry should provide a contrast of styles.

12/20 Michigan State @ Texas
Tough road trip for Izzo’s Spartans that will go a long way towards determining how the Big Ten is regarded nationwide.

12/20 Louisville @ Minnesota
Tubby Smith hosts an old rival, and Minnesota’s freshman get a big test.

12/23 Texas @ Wisconsin
Texas’ 2nd battle with a Big Ten foe in less than a week, this one on unfamiliar turf.

12/27 West Virginia @ Ohio State
The Buckeye’s host Huggins’ Mountaineers just before both schools prepare for conferene play.

1/10 Kansas @ Michigan State
A great little interconference treat just after conference play has begun.

Predicted NCAA Tournament Invites (4):

Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Ohio State

Friday, November 14, 2008

State of the Republican Party/Post-Mortem on the McCampaign

In 1968, when LBJ left office, the country was in turmoil and the Democratic Party was in a state of decline, due to a lack of established leaders in the party, constant in-fighting (unions vs. students vs. catholics vs. blacks vs. traditional southern democrats vs. …..) and a general state of distaste in the mouths of the political center towards the Democratic Party. For the past 40 years (with the minor blip of Carter – only as a result of the corruption of the Nixon administration), the Democratic Party has been fighting to recover from where the Party was at in ’68.

I posit that the Republican Party is in a similar state, and is quite possibly only at the beginning of a downward slide in their influence over American politics.

(Interesting side note, having little to do with my thesis, but presenting a great opportunity for a dig at the Bush administration: while LBJ left the country and the Party in a state of turmoil, he did have some significant accomplishments during his term, not the least of which is the Voting Rights Act. Looking back over eight years of GWB, not one single accomplishment. Not one.)

The current Republican party has based it successes since 1980 on a handful of fronts: fiscal conservatives, evangelical Christians, military hawks, conservative intellectuals and, for lack of a better term, “Joe-the-Plumbers.”

Even before this election cycle began, portions of some of these groups were seen heading for higher ground.

Fiscal conservatives, while still slow to vote for Democrats, became increasingly uncomfortable with Republicans who had shown a complete lack of fiscal conservatism, and the constant baiting for evangelical Christians made them nervous as well.

Evangelical Christians were tired of having lip service paid to them by their politicians, only to fail to pursue their core issues once elected.

Conservative intellectuals have been jumping ship for about five years.

As the election cycle proceeded and McCain became the nominee, both the fiscal conservatives and evangelical Christians were more put off, despite McCain’s attempts to change his tune towards each of these groups who he had distanced himself from in the past. Further, many within the military community were turned off by his opposition to the recent GI Bill and other slights toward not only current military, but veterans groups.

But at least the “Joe-the-Plumbers” were still with them, and McCain still had an excellent shot at taking the middle-of-the-road independent voters. Had that occurred, and given the fact that very few in the fiscal conservatives, evangelical Christians or military hawks were jumping for joy over the prospect of voting for Obama, the odds are strong that McCain would have held onto Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and possibly Ohio and Pennsylvania, and walked away with a fairly easy victory.

However, in an attempt to “rally the base,” McCain chose Sarah Palin as his running mate, apparently neglecting to notice that it wasn’t really the base that was going to be the difference in this election, but rather the independents, the swing voters. Sure, inspiring that base to vote in large numbers was a fine goal, but the ideal candidate for McCain would have been one who would have been palatable enough to the “base” to not drive them away while still appealing to the independents.

Needless to say, Palin not only did not appeal to independents, she was also just terrible enough to siphon off voters from the fiscal conservatives and completely drive the rest of the fiscal conservatives away.

Now, in the aftermath of a completely winnable election, the in-fighting that has been occurring for the past several years is out in the open. Conservative talk show hosts (which I like to refer to as the idiot wing of the Republican Party) are trying to start a witch-hunt among Republicans who have had the gall to cross Sarah Palin, trying to isolate her as the future of the Party (which is every comedy-writer, Youtube-addict and DNC staffer’s wet dream). Sane Republicans are trying to distance themselves from her and return to a platform that can appeal to a large portion of independents, while not selling out the traditional supporters of the Republican Party, and everyone (except perhaps that ol’ idiot wing) is trying to distance themselves from the Bush administration. Irony of ironies is that perhaps the only hope for unity in the Republican Party at this time is a united front against the failed policies of the Bush administration.

Now, certainly all of this can come across as little more than premature congratulations over what could just be a temporary stumble by the Republican Party. Obama certainly couldn’t have chosen a tougher time to be elected president. The economy is certainly going to get significantly worse before it gets better. He has one war to extricate us from and another to re-engage. He has to patch up alliances lost around the world. There remains a looming environmental crisis and no gains have been made on the energy front in eight years. We still have significant threats from enemies around the globe. The Constitution must be re-assembled from the scraps it has been left in. But this is precisely the time when the country needs good strong leadership from an intelligent executive. As Obama and the Democratic Party begin the march back from the precipice, embracing some of those things that Republicans claim to stand for and disowning much of what they actually do stand for, America will march back with them.

There will be setbacks, but the pendulum has swung. Forty years of paying lip service to conservatism in this country is done. May the next forty re-establish America as a beacon to the rest of the world.

Big 12 2008-09 College Basketball Preview

Predicted Order of Finish

While the Big 12 boasts the defending national champion Kansas Jayhawks, the Jayhawks don’t have a lot of players remaining who were around for that run, leaving a wide open race at the top of the conference. While Kansas may be down a bit, the conference itself is still very strong, featuring at least a couple of teams who will figure strongly in the national championship race, a couple or three more who could potentially last until the second weekend of the tournament, and a few teams in the middle of the pack fighting for a tournament berth.

1. Oklahoma – When forward Blake Griffin announced his intention to return for his sophomore season in Norman, Jeff Capel knew he was going to have an exciting season. Add spectacular freshman guard Willie Warren and this is the best Sooner basketball team in quite a while.

2. Texas – After losing Kevin Durant to the NBA draft two seasons ago, the Longhorns didn’t miss a beat. Now, point guard D.J. Augustin has joined Durant at the next level, but the Longhorns are still loaded and ready for another run.

3. Kansas – The Jayhawks may take their lumps early in the season as a boatload of newcomers adjust to the college game, but by the Big 12 season, this should be a dangerous team.

4. Baylor – The Bears were a great story last year and, returning most of that team, figure to be an exciting and dangerous squad again this season.

5. Texas A&M – Mark Turgeon had an up-and-down first year in College Station, but veterans Josh Carter and Donald Sloan have been to a few rodeos and their experience should carry the Aggies to the NCAA tournament.

6. Missouri – While the Mike Anderson era has not gone smoothly so far, the combination of Leo Lyons and DeMarre Carroll will present tough matchups for most opponents.

7. Oklahoma State – Travis Ford takes over a team full of talented guards, but quite thin up front. They may be an exciting team, but they will wear down due to the lack of size over the course of the season.

8. Texas Tech – Pat Knight’s first full season as the Red Raider’s head coach will likely showcase the fact that Bobby’s son will need to start hitting the recruiting trail.

9. Kansas State – It was fun while it lasted, but NBA talents like Michael Beasley and Bill Walker are not easily replaced.

10. Colorado – A thin, small, under-talented team that will win a few games they shouldn’t due to style of play, coaching and altitude.

11. Nebraska – Some talented guards surround a big hole in the middle, left by graduate Aleks Maric.

12. Iowa State – While Coach Greg McDermott brought in a strong recruiting class, this squad is still at least a year away from inching up the standings.

Preseason All-Conference

First Team
PG Byron Eaton Sr Oklahoma State
SG Willie Warren Fr Oklahoma
SG Josh Carter Sr Texas A&M
SF Damion James Jr Texas
PF Blake Griffin So Oklahoma

Second Team
PG AJ Abrams Sr Texas
SG Curtis Jerrels Sr Baylor
SG Justin Mason Jr Texas
PF Leo Lyons Sr Missouri
SF DeMarre Carroll Sr Missouri

Third Team
PG Jacob Pullen So Kansas State
PG Sherron Collins Jr Kansas
SG Abe Dagunduro Sr Nebraska
SF James Anderson So Oklahoma State
C Cole Aldrich So Kansas

All Freshman Team
SG Willie Warren Oklahoma
SF Anthony Jones Baylor
PF LA Pomlee Iowa State
PF Marcus Morris Kansas
PF David Loubeau Texas A&M

Preseason Tournament Tie-Ins

Baylor - Anaheim Classic
Possible opponents: Providence, Arizona State/Charlotte, Wake Forest/St. Mary’s

Kansas - CBE Classic
Possible opponents: Washington, Syracuse/Florida

Kansas State – Las Vegas Invitational
Possible opponents: Kentucky, Iowa/West Virginia

Missouri – Puerto Rico Tip-Off
Possible opponents: Xavier, Virginia Tech, USC/Seton Hall/Memphis

Oklahoma – NIT Season Tip-Off
Possible opponents: Mississippi Valley State, Davidson, Arizona/UAB, Boston College/Purdue

Oklahoma State – Old Spice Classic
Possible opponents: Gonzaga, Maryland/Michigan State, Wichita State/Georgetown/Siena/Tennessee

Texas – Maui Invitational
Possible opponents: St. Joe’s, Notre Dame, North Carolina/Oregon/Alabama

Texas Tech – Legend’s Classic
Possible opponents: Pitt, Mississippi State/Washington State

Top 10 Non- Conference Games

12/4 USC @ Oklahoma
Just one of several very compelling Big 12/Pac-10 matchups, this one between teams with March (and April) dreams.

12/4 Oklahoma State @ Washington
A good early chance to see where two interesting teams stand.

12/4 UCLA @ Texas
Another Big 12/Pac-10 matchup between national title contenders

12/6 Baylor @ Washington State
A rematch of what was a great interconference battle last season.

12/9 Villanova @ Texas
This is just one stop in a murderer’s row of a non-conference schedule for the Longhorns, featuring top 25 opponents at every turn.

12/20 Michigan State @ Texas
Yet another instance of a Big 12 team facing a foe with national title aspirations.

12/23 Texas @ Wisconsin
To cap a grueling non-conference run, the Longhorns have to travel up north to face a rugged Badger team.

1/3 Tennessee @ Kansas
Just when you thought Texas had a monopoly on brutal non-conference schedules, Kansas kicks off a trifecta of intense games, just before their conference schedule begins.

1/6 Siena @ Kansas
At first glance, this may not look like much, but Siena is one of the best “mid-majors” this season, and to make matters worse, this is the meat in a Tennessee/at Michigan State sandwich.

1/10 Kansas @ Michigan State
As Kansas’ reward for getting through this tough roadies, the Jayhawks will get to head home to open Big 12 play against in-state rival Kansas State three nights later.

Predicted NCAA Tournament Invites (5):

Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, Baylor, Texas A&M

Friday, August 29, 2008

Oregon State at Stanford - Pac-10 Season Opener

Hey Stanford. Maybe find a way to puts some people in the seats, eh? Having the place half-full would have been a vast improvement over the embarrassment last night. Maybe 20% occupancy? I've seen junior college games with more energy than this one. Especially given that you've got the football opener, a conference rival and a national TV audience all-in-one, you have absolutely got to find a way to get more people into that stadium. I'm sure it will get better once the students arrive, but that was ridiculous last night. The official attendance was over 30,000, but that was at least double the actual attendance...

As to the game, Stanford is definitely an improved squad under Harbaugh. They are much more run-first now with Kimble and Gerhart, although Pritchard is a good make-no-mistakes QB. They've got competitive athletes in the trenches that had been missing from the Farm for a few years and more legit DI talent than they've had recently.

Oregon State will once again improve as the season goes on. They've got some playmakers at the skill positions offensively, with particular depth at the WR position. Stroughter looks like he is back to the guy we knew a couple years back: can stretch the field as well as make plays around the line of scrimmage on end-arounds or short passes. Rogers is another talented WR, the type of guy who they will get the ball to on short passes and let him play RB from the WR position. And Morales emerged last night as a good possession third WR. Jacquez Rogers also looks like he should provide some excitement to the offense. The QB Moevao is okay if he can stay away from mistakes. It seems like after that backwards pass that went for a safety, he got a bit flustered and got out of rhythm for a few series after that (including the horrible pass in the flats that got picked by McNally and returned for a TD). He doesn't have a great arm, can't make all the throws in the book, but as long as he can keep from making the dumb mistake, the Beavers will be fine offensively. Defensively, they will improve as the season goes on, as well.

Of course the big play of the game was Catchings coming across the middle on a crossing pattern, making the catch, picking up a first down with plenty of time remaining, reaching the ball out, trying to stretch it into the end zone for the TD, setting up the potential game tying 2-point conversion. However, before the ball reached the goal line, Catchings fumbled the ball and it went into the end zone and out of bounds for a touchback, sealing the game for Stanford, in a play that looked very much like the one that ended the Oregon/Cal game last season, when the Ducks' Shawn Colvin made a very similar error to ice the game for Cal.

All in all, an entertaining start to the Pac-10 season from teams who look to be potential bowl-caliber teams this season.

Saturday, March 22, 2008

NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament: Saturday's Second Round Games

UCLA vs. Texas A&M

This is a game UCLA can lose. It’s not something that Texas A&M can take from them, but it is certainly something UCLA can give to them. If Love gets in foul trouble, if Mbah A Moute doesn’t play, if the 3pt shots aren’t falling and if the Bruins get lazy offensively, the Aggies can be in this game.

More likely, however, Love dominates the matchup with either Jones or Jordan, the A&M guards have all kinds of trouble initiating their offense against Collison and Westbrook and Josh Carter is unable to find any type of open looks from the perimeter.

First guess: UCLA 68 Texas A&M 51

Purdue vs Xavier

A year ago in this round of the tournament, Xavier was busy giving Ohio St all they could handle, and then some, in their upset bid. You can bet Sean Miller will be playing up the comparison this year. Xavier is now the tournament-tested squad, up against the talented but inexperienced challenger.

Physically, Purdue can hang with this team. Xavier probably has a little more bulk on the interior, they probably have guards that are just a bit quicker, and they have more athleticism on the wings. But, Purdue, despite being a young team, has a lot of fight in them. While no one Purdue defender can handle Drew Lavender (who appears to be back from his ankle problems), the combination of Chris Kramer, Keaton Grant, E’Twaun Moore and Marcus Green can slow him. However, as we saw in the first round game, Xavier has the ability to just about totally eliminate one of the opposing team’s best players from the game, by just tapping Stanley Burrell on the shoulder. Burrell dominated Georgia PG Sundiatta Gaines in the 2nd half of Xavier’s first round matchup, and should Grant or Moore start to give the Musketeers problems, you can bet that Burrell will be pointed in their direction.

Meanwhile, the Musketeer frontcourt (Brown, Anderson and Duncan, mainly) should just be too much athletically for the talented but raw Boilermaker frontcourt.

First guess: Xavier 69 Purdue 60

West Virginia vs. Duke

After Duke almost got out-Duked by a run-and-gun Belmont team in the first round, the Devils run into a team who just a year ago would have tried to do the same thing: beat Duke in a 3pt shooting contest. However, with Bob Huggins on guard-duty in Morgantown, the Mountaineers have played a bit more conventionally this season. While they still have a few guys who will be very comfortable bombing from downtown should it come to that (Ruoff, Nichols, Butler), it is more likely that West Virginia will try to ride their superstar, Joe Alexander, getting him the ball in the post, in the slot, facing him up, backing him down. However, as skilled and athletic as Alexander is, he runs into a guy who could be the perfect matchup for him.

Duke sophomore Gerald Henderson has really come into his own this year, finding a consistent mid-range jumper to go with his explosive athletic ability. Henderson has also improved tremendously on the defensive end, to the point where he has stopper ability. While he gives away several inches to Alexander, his long arms, leaping ability and quickness should make him a good defensive matchup.

The rest of the Duke entourage should have the ability to get free within their offense for their constant barrage of deep shots. The Devil backcourt is just too fast, too quick and too deep for the Mountaineers to contend with for a full 40 minutes. West Virginia should stick around for a half or more, but in the end, there will be too much Duke.

First guess: Duke 81 West Virginia 70

Michigan St vs. Pitt

The athletic trainers are going to be in for a workout once this game ends. Anybody who sees any playing time at all (and perhaps a few even who don’t) are going to be in dire need of heating pads, ice packs, bandages and rubdowns. This will be an all-out battle. Every possession will be a turf fight, and in the end, the win will go to the team that is the toughest.

You really can’t argue with the toughness of the Michigan St team. Tom Izzo preaches hard-nosed defense and smart offense from day one. The two senior Drews for MSU (Neitzel and Naymick) will be relying on 4 years of Izzo teaching to get them to one more game. However, there is an awful lot of youth on this team. Three freshman will be relied on not only to provide smart play offensively, but strength against an athletic, gritty Pitt perimeter. Further, soph Raymar Morgan is really the second offensive option for the Spartans.

Pitt not only has an advantage in terms of overall experience, but they are more athletic on the perimeter and stronger in the middle. However, this is not a particularly deep team, and if the whistles are coming fast and furious, MSU can take advantage of a Pitt team weakened by foul trouble. Plus, MSU can throw three (or more) big men, and all the fouls at their disposal, at the Panther big men, should it come to that.

There will be some great individual matchups in this game (Fields vs. Neitzel, Young vs. Morgan), but in the end, despite what will surely be a valiant effort, Pitt will have too much athleticism and offensive ability for this MSU squad.

First guess: Pitt 62 Michigan St 56

Marquette vs. Stanford

This is your prototypical matchup of conflicting styles.

Stanford is going to throw a lineup out there featuring two 7-footers, along with length on the perimeter and off of the bench. They are going to dump the ball into their big men, they are going to put the ball up around the rim and they are going to attack the boards.

Marquette is going to run three guards. They are going to spread the floor and make the opposition match-up with their guards in open space. They are going to press the Stanford guards up and down the floor.

And, in the end, whoever has the ability to force their style of game onto the other one, will have the advantage. Generally, it is easier to slow the game down than it is to speed it up, so, as long as Mitch Johnson and Anthony Goods can take care of the ball and get the ball fed into the post on a regular basis, Stanford could have an easy time. But if the Marquette guards can disrupt the Stanford offense, the Cardinal could be in a heap of trouble.

First guess: Stanford 69 Marquette 60

Notre Dame vs. Washington St

Washington St has the most problems facing teams who are long and athletic. Without a single thing against the Fighting Irish, that is just not a description of them in the least. If you can get in the faces of Derrick Low and Taylor Rochestie, the Cougar offense tends to bog down and die. If they can outquick you to an open spot and get a split second worth of a clean look, they will pick you apart every time. If the Irish have any chance of disrupting the Cougar offense, it may be that guys like Randy Ayers and Zach Hillesland have to guard players much smaller and quicker than them, and as it turns out, that could be even more deadly.

Not that Notre Dame doesn’t have offensive weapons of their own. Luke Harangody was the Big East Player of the Year, and he will not go down without a fight. Aaron Baynes has the size to battle him, but Harangody is quicker and more skilled than Baynes, and Baynes can certainly get into foul trouble. The next best option for Washington State would be Robbie Cowgill who, despite having an inch or two on Harangody, is probably too thin to effectively handle him in the low post.

But, without significant height mismatches in the guard positions, the Cougars are going to make it difficult for the Irish to get the ball into the post, they are going to be able to knock down their threes throughout, and more than likely, Tony Bennett will outcoach Mike Brey in a two-day turn-around affair.

First guess: Washington State 73 Notre Dame 63

Kansas vs. UNLV

UNLV looked terrific in their first round blowout of Kent State. The Golden Flashes were never able to get anything going offensively and a small UNLV team dominated a team of similar size and strength. Let’s put the notion that such a thing might happen again to rest right now. Kansas is no Kent State.

Darrell Arthur, Darnell Jackson, Sasha Kaun, even Cole Aldrich. The Running Rebs never saw anything like that in round one. Throw in perimeter players every bit the equal (or, let’s be honest, the better) than what the Rebs have and this one really should never be in doubt, right?

Well. Yeah. Probably. How could UNLV keep this close? Adams, Terry, Rougeau hound the Jayhawk guards up and down the court, keep the ball on the perimeter, knock down their shots offensively, and get a good bit of luck, and perhaps their strong perimeter game (both offensively and defensively) could keep them in it.

A more likely scenario? This one gets away from them by halftime.

First guess: Kansas 79 UNLV 52

Kansas St. vs. Wisconsin

Okay. First, a little advice. Michael Beasley. Hey. You’re a pretty damn good player. Your team really relies on you a lot. You’re going up against a team with a lot more size and a lot more effective interior players than you did in the last round. Howzabout, perhaps, try not picking up two fouls in the first four minutes like you did in that last game? Huh? Let’s see how that works. Because, if you do pick up a couple fouls early, I’m guessing your team doesn’t make it to halftime with a chance in hell.

Okay. Now that we got that out of the way. It really is the case that this game is going to be on Beasley’s back. He is far more athletic that Brian Butch or Greg Stiemsma, despite giving up a few inches, and has the ability to step outside and handle Butch if he should pull away from the basket. If he can stay in the game, make Butch work defensively (and perhaps get him in foul trouble, rather than the other way around), then perhaps the Wildcats can spring this upset.

A major question mark for the Badgers could be the ankle injury to Trevon Hughes. There is probably not enough depth in the Wisconsin backcourt to survive the loss of Hughes, although Michael Flowers could certainly make things tough for Wildcat backcourt.

In the end, the Wisconsin defense keeps the score low enough, they get Beasley and/or Walker in foul trouble early and often, and have just enough to pull this one out.

Wisconsin 61 Kansas St 59