NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament: Saturday's Second Round Games

UCLA vs. Texas A&M

This is a game UCLA can lose. It’s not something that Texas A&M can take from them, but it is certainly something UCLA can give to them. If Love gets in foul trouble, if Mbah A Moute doesn’t play, if the 3pt shots aren’t falling and if the Bruins get lazy offensively, the Aggies can be in this game.

More likely, however, Love dominates the matchup with either Jones or Jordan, the A&M guards have all kinds of trouble initiating their offense against Collison and Westbrook and Josh Carter is unable to find any type of open looks from the perimeter.

First guess: UCLA 68 Texas A&M 51

Purdue vs Xavier

A year ago in this round of the tournament, Xavier was busy giving Ohio St all they could handle, and then some, in their upset bid. You can bet Sean Miller will be playing up the comparison this year. Xavier is now the tournament-tested squad, up against the talented but inexperienced challenger.

Physically, Purdue can hang with this team. Xavier probably has a little more bulk on the interior, they probably have guards that are just a bit quicker, and they have more athleticism on the wings. But, Purdue, despite being a young team, has a lot of fight in them. While no one Purdue defender can handle Drew Lavender (who appears to be back from his ankle problems), the combination of Chris Kramer, Keaton Grant, E’Twaun Moore and Marcus Green can slow him. However, as we saw in the first round game, Xavier has the ability to just about totally eliminate one of the opposing team’s best players from the game, by just tapping Stanley Burrell on the shoulder. Burrell dominated Georgia PG Sundiatta Gaines in the 2^nd half of Xavier’s first round matchup, and should Grant or Moore start to give the Musketeers problems, you can bet that Burrell will be pointed in their direction.

Meanwhile, the Musketeer frontcourt (Brown, Anderson and Duncan, mainly) should just be too much athletically for the talented but raw Boilermaker frontcourt.

First guess: Xavier 69 Purdue 60

West Virginia vs. Duke

After Duke almost got out-Duked by a run-and-gun Belmont team in the first round, the Devils run into a team who just a year ago would have tried to do the same thing: beat Duke in a 3pt shooting contest. However, with Bob Huggins on guard-duty in Morgantown, the Mountaineers have played a bit more conventionally this season. While they still have a few guys who will be very comfortable bombing from downtown should it come to that (Ruoff, Nichols, Butler), it is more likely that West Virginia will try to ride their superstar, Joe Alexander, getting him the ball in the post, in the slot, facing him up, backing him down. However, as skilled and athletic as Alexander is, he runs into a guy who could be the perfect matchup for him.

Duke sophomore Gerald Henderson has really come into his own this year, finding a consistent mid-range jumper to go with his explosive athletic ability. Henderson has also improved tremendously on the defensive end, to the point where he has stopper ability. While he gives away several inches to Alexander, his long arms, leaping ability and quickness should make him a good defensive matchup.

The rest of the Duke entourage should have the ability to get free within their offense for their constant barrage of deep shots. The Devil backcourt is just too fast, too quick and too deep for the Mountaineers to contend with for a full 40 minutes. West Virginia should stick around for a half or more, but in the end, there will be too much Duke.

First guess: Duke 81 West Virginia 70

Michigan St vs. Pitt

The athletic trainers are going to be in for a workout once this game ends. Anybody who sees any playing time at all (and perhaps a few even who don’t) are going to be in dire need of heating pads, ice packs, bandages and rubdowns. This will be an all-out battle. Every possession will be a turf fight, and in the end, the win will go to the team that is the toughest.

You really can’t argue with the toughness of the Michigan St team. Tom Izzo preaches hard-nosed defense and smart offense from day one. The two senior Drews for MSU (Neitzel and Naymick) will be relying on 4 years of Izzo teaching to get them to one more game. However, there is an awful lot of youth on this team. Three freshman will be relied on not only to provide smart play offensively, but strength against an athletic, gritty Pitt perimeter. Further, soph Raymar Morgan is really the second offensive option for the Spartans.

Pitt not only has an advantage in terms of overall experience, but they are more athletic on the perimeter and stronger in the middle. However, this is not a particularly deep team, and if the whistles are coming fast and furious, MSU can take advantage of a Pitt team weakened by foul trouble. Plus, MSU can throw three (or more) big men, and all the fouls at their disposal, at the Panther big men, should it come to that.

There will be some great individual matchups in this game (Fields vs. Neitzel, Young vs. Morgan), but in the end, despite what will surely be a valiant effort, Pitt will have too much athleticism and offensive ability for this MSU squad.

First guess: Pitt 62 Michigan St 56

Marquette vs. Stanford

This is your prototypical matchup of conflicting styles.

Stanford is going to throw a lineup out there featuring two 7-footers, along with length on the perimeter and off of the bench. They are going to dump the ball into their big men, they are going to put the ball up around the rim and they are going to attack the boards.

Marquette is going to run three guards. They are going to spread the floor and make the opposition match-up with their guards in open space. They are going to press the Stanford guards up and down the floor.

And, in the end, whoever has the ability to force their style of game onto the other one, will have the advantage. Generally, it is easier to slow the game down than it is to speed it up, so, as long as Mitch Johnson and Anthony Goods can take care of the ball and get the ball fed into the post on a regular basis, Stanford could have an easy time. But if the Marquette guards can disrupt the Stanford offense, the Cardinal could be in a heap of trouble.

First guess: Stanford 69 Marquette 60

Notre Dame vs. Washington St

Washington St has the most problems facing teams who are long and athletic. Without a single thing against the Fighting Irish, that is just not a description of them in the least. If you can get in the faces of Derrick Low and Taylor Rochestie, the Cougar offense tends to bog down and die. If they can outquick you to an open spot and get a split second worth of a clean look, they will pick you apart every time. If the Irish have any chance of disrupting the Cougar offense, it may be that guys like Randy Ayers and Zach Hillesland have to guard players much smaller and quicker than them, and as it turns out, that could be even more deadly.

Not that Notre Dame doesn’t have offensive weapons of their own. Luke Harangody was the Big East Player of the Year, and he will not go down without a fight. Aaron Baynes has the size to battle him, but Harangody is quicker and more skilled than Baynes, and Baynes can certainly get into foul trouble. The next best option for Washington State would be Robbie Cowgill who, despite having an inch or two on Harangody, is probably too thin to effectively handle him in the low post.

But, without significant height mismatches in the guard positions, the Cougars are going to make it difficult for the Irish to get the ball into the post, they are going to be able to knock down their threes throughout, and more than likely, Tony Bennett will outcoach Mike Brey in a two-day turn-around affair.

First guess: Washington State 73 Notre Dame 63

Kansas vs. UNLV

UNLV looked terrific in their first round blowout of Kent State. The Golden Flashes were never able to get anything going offensively and a small UNLV team dominated a team of similar size and strength. Let’s put the notion that such a thing might happen again to rest right now. Kansas is no Kent State.

Darrell Arthur, Darnell Jackson, Sasha Kaun, even Cole Aldrich. The Running Rebs never saw anything like that in round one. Throw in perimeter players every bit the equal (or, let’s be honest, the better) than what the Rebs have and this one really should never be in doubt, right?

Well. Yeah. Probably. How could UNLV keep this close? Adams, Terry, Rougeau hound the Jayhawk guards up and down the court, keep the ball on the perimeter, knock down their shots offensively, and get a good bit of luck, and perhaps their strong perimeter game (both offensively and defensively) could keep them in it.

A more likely scenario? This one gets away from them by halftime.

First guess: Kansas 79 UNLV 52

Kansas St. vs. Wisconsin

Okay. First, a little advice. Michael Beasley. Hey. You’re a pretty damn good player. Your team really relies on you a lot. You’re going up against a team with a lot more size and a lot more effective interior players than you did in the last round. Howzabout, perhaps, try not picking up two fouls in the first four minutes like you did in that last game? Huh? Let’s see how that works. Because, if you do pick up a couple fouls early, I’m guessing your team doesn’t make it to halftime with a chance in hell.

Okay. Now that we got that out of the way. It really is the case that this game is going to be on Beasley’s back. He is far more athletic that Brian Butch or Greg Stiemsma, despite giving up a few inches, and has the ability to step outside and handle Butch if he should pull away from the basket. If he can stay in the game, make Butch work defensively (and perhaps get him in foul trouble, rather than the other way around), then perhaps the Wildcats can spring this upset.

A major question mark for the Badgers could be the ankle injury to Trevon Hughes. There is probably not enough depth in the Wisconsin backcourt to survive the loss of Hughes, although Michael Flowers could certainly make things tough for Wildcat backcourt.

In the end, the Wisconsin defense keeps the score low enough, they get Beasley and/or Walker in foul trouble early and often, and have just enough to pull this one out.

Wisconsin 61 Kansas St 59

NCAA Tournament First Round Capsules: West Region

UCLA vs. Mississippi Valley State

Mississippi Valley State is one of four teams competing in the NCAA tournament that I have never seen play. As such, I don’t really have the ability to handicap this game.

However, I’m just gonna go with a hunch that UCLA might pull out a win here.

First guess: I have a hard time putting a number on this due to my lack of familiarity with this MVSU program, but I’ll guess UCLA 75 MVSU 45

BYU vs. Texas A&M

On paper, it looks like Texas A&M should win this game. But then again, on paper, it looks like A&M shouldn’t even be playing in this game, and instead should be matched up with Georgia or UMBC or Coppin State in this first round game. There is a lot of talent on this Aggie squad, but most of it has gone unfulfilled this season. The point guard position has certainly take a huge hit with the loss of Acie Law to graduation last year, and as promising as Sloan and Kirk have seemed, they have never really hit their stride, and the whole team has suffered as a result

Across the court, the Aggies will run into a team that makes the most of the talent it has. BYU fields a balanced offensive team, with a strong inside threat in Plaisted, several players who are threats to connect from deep and an excellent ball-control point guard to tie it all together in Murdock.

In the end, that disconnect between the players at each point guard position may well be the difference in this game.

First guess: BYU 75 Texas A&M 69

Drake vs. Western Kentucky

These may well be two of my favorite teams to watch in this year’s tournament, and unfortunately for one of them and the rest of us, one of them will be going home before the fun has even really begun.

Drake is, of course, one of the great stories of the season, surprising everyone to win a tough Missouri Valley Conference pretty handily, starring a former walk-on at point who was awarded the MVC player of the year despite average less than 10 points per game, Adam Emmenecker. Emmenecker is a consummate point-man, distributing the ball, playing excellent defense, hustle all over the floor and doing all of the little things to help his team succeed. The rest of the Drake squad is littered with your typical Valley players: excellent defenders, deadly perimeter shooters and interior grinders.

The Bulldogs will run into some stout competition in this first round game, however. Western Kentucky will have the best player on the floor in Courtney Lee, who has NBA talent in his length, strength and terrific midrange game. The Hilltoppers also feature an excellent combination of guard in their backcourt, with Tyrone Brazelton and A.J. Slaughter leading an aggressive, fast-paced offensive and a disruptive defense.

This game is really almost too close to call. There may be a little more athleticism on the Western Kentucky side, there may slightly better shooters on the Drake side. It is just a damn shame that the committee saw fit to match these teams up. Wouldn’t something like Drake/Villanova and Clemson/Western Kentucky have been more intriguing matchups?

Bah! I guess I have to pick one of ‘em. Let’s say Emmenecker makes an amazing diving save of a ball just about to go out of bounds, saves the ball in to Leonard Houston who hits a 3 in the corner for the win as time expires.

First guess: Drake 73 Western Kentucky 72

Connecticut vs. San Diego

Well, let’s get this out of the way real quick: San Diego has no one who can matchup up with Hasheem Thabeet. So what? They sink back into a zone and make UConn earn their points.

Speaking of points: whoo-wee have we got a matchup at the 1-spot? A.J. Price vs. Brandon Johnson? Now that is just going to be fun to watch. Price may be a bit better defender, and that could be the difference here. If Price, and Wiggins, his backup, can slow Brandon Johnson down, the entire Torrero offense could slow.

UConn is clearly the deeper team in this matchup, made all the more confident in their depth after midseason suspension to guards Dyson and Wiggins made Calhoun dig a little deeper into the bench, and with some good success, I might add.

USD will keep this closer than many suspect, but the Huskies will lean on them and wear them down as the game goes on.

First guess: UConn 70 San Diego 61

Purdue vs. Baylor

There will be times in this game, where there will be eight guards on the floor at once , but despite that, don’t think that these two teams play similar styles. Baylor is going to run up and down the floor, throw up three pointers by the barrel and try to outquick a Boilermaker squad. Purdue on the other hand is going to defend the perimeter, run a lot of motion and scrap and fight their way to the finish line.

Neither of these teams has a whole lot of experience, and while there is some size here and there, that is almost besides the point.

Baylor will definitely have a harder time getting clean looks from the outside against this Purdue defense, but they also have guys that can slash into the lane and create scoring opportunities through penetration. Purdue meanwhile is made up of guys at seemingly every position that can step outside and hit a 3, as well as some bigger bodies that can flash in the lane against the ever-present Baylor zone and create medium-range opportunities.

This will be another eminently exciting 1^st round matchup and both teams have the ability to pull this one out. Perhaps the difference will be the excellent team FT shooting by the Baylor Bears?

First guess: Baylor 72 Purdue 71

Xavier vs. Georgia

Perhaps the key to this game is the health of Drew Lavender’s ankle. He injured it about a month ago, and he clearly has not been the same since, and as a result, the Musketeers have not been the same either. Throw in a tough match-up against a quick point guard and if Lavender’s ankle has not improved in the last week, Xavier could be in trouble.

Now, that being said, despite the fact that Georgia is a hot team, they have not shown themselves to be a very good team over the course of the season, and Xavier has been a consistent, balanced squad (albeit with a couple games worth of stinkers fit in there) from day one. Even if the Lavender injury is still causing problems, the Musketeers should have enough talent in that front line to advance here.

First guess: Xavier 75 Georgia 65

West Virginia vs. Arizona

Joe Alexander is one of the hottest players in the country, and will probably be checked by a serious underachiever on the defensive end in Chase Budinger. Budinger has the athletic ability and the body to be a very good defender, but he has been consistently taken advantage of on defense throughout the season. Assuming that doesn’t change this week, Alexander will get his and it will be up to the rest of the Wildcat team to contain the rest of the Mountaineers.

Jordan Hill is another key for Arizona. Hill has been foul-prone over his career, and this can be troublesome for Arizona, given that he is the only legitimate low-post threat on the team. If he is able to stay on the court, he should be able to get the Wildcats some easy baskets, as the best Wet Virginia big man, Jamie Smalligan, is no more than a big body to bang around in the low post.

Arizona’s young backcourt of Nic Wise and Jerryd Bayless is finally healthy at the same time, and that could be the difference in this game. With both of these guys on the floor at the same time, the Wildcats are a potent offensive squad, and may be a little too much for the Mountaineers.

First guess: Arizona 77 West Virginia 70

Duke vs. Belmont

Get ready for a three-point barrage. Belmont is a guard-oriented team that is going to put up a ton of threes. Unfortunately for them, they aren’t a particularly good defensive team, and Duke’s offensive juggernaut should really have no problem scoring a ton of points here.

First guess: Duke 88 Belmont 60

NCAA Tournament First Round Capsules: Midwest Region

Kansas vs. Portland State

Portland State’s best player is 5’6” water-bug Jeremiah Dominguez. He is quick, a nice 3pt shooter, a good ballhandler, and in for an absolutely horrifying day against some of the nation’s best perimeter defenders in Russell Robinson, Mario Chalmers, and (for a break) someone more his own size (and quickness), Sherron Collins.

Who knows? Maybe Dominguez will keep it interesting for 10 minutes or so. But, more likely, he and his teammates will be nervous out of their minds, playing a number one seed in the first time slot of the tournament and the game gets ugly before the first TV timeout.

Early guess: Kansas 88 Portland St 63

UNLV vs. Kent State

This should be a fun match-up. Neither team is particularly big, both are athletic and quick, can knock down the threes. I think UNLV has a pretty strong advantage here however as they are excellent at defending the 3. Wink Adams and Curtis Terry against Al Fisher and Chris Singletary is a fantastic backcourt match-up that is too close to call.

It will be interesting to see if guys like Darger, Bailey and Shaw can effectively defense Golden Flash front court weapons like Quaintance and Scott, who are both good scoring threats and effective all around players.

While UNLV is definitely playing their best basketball of the season right now, Kent State just has more offensive weapons than the Rebels and they should come out on top.

First guess: Kent State 61 UNLV 57

Clemson vs. Villanova

This Villanova team still has plenty of good things waiting for it in the future, but they are going to have to wait a little longer. They are running into a hot team in this first round game, and a team that they don’t necessarily match up well with.

Clemson is much more athletic and aggressive in the paint, on both ends of the floor, and while Villanova does have some very impressive guards, they really don’t have anything on this Clemson backcourt with senior Cliff Hammonds leading a fun team to watch.

Of course, Clemson’s Achilles heel is their free-throw shooting, and it will likely come back to bite them at some point in this tournament, but in order for that to matter, their opponent has to be within shouting distance at the end, and it will take a heroic performance by Scottie Reynolds to get the Wildcats that close.

While the Wildcat guards should have the ability to handle the Clemson press fairly well, they may have trouble finishing against the Clemson front court.

First guess: Clemson 78 Villanova 65

Vanderbilt vs. Siena

Unfortunately for Vanderbilt, there are no home games in the NCAA Tournament. While the Commodores are an excellent team at home, they are a different beast all together away from the home crowd. And here they run into a very capable team.

Siena is a fast, athletic and skilled team that is going to push the tempo, attack the basket and fire up threes. If they have their way, this game will be played in the 70s, or higher. Ronald Moore leads a high-powered offensive team with capable scorers Ubiles, Hansbrouck, Franklin and Fisher.

Not that Vanderbilt is incapable of scoring. Shan Foster is a veritable microwave who is a big streaky shooter with excellent range. Vandy will need to get some production out of Aussie Andrew Ogilvy, who will have a big size advantage over the biggest players the Saints can throw at him. Ogilvy, however, can be inconsistent and a little soft, and even foul prone.

In the end, Siena will be too fast and too much offensively for the brilliance of Foster to overcome.

First guess: Siena 76 Vanderbilt 69

USC vs. Kansas State

This is, without a doubt, the sexiest first round matchup: not only Mayo vs. Beasley, but Mayo against longtime teammate and good friend, Bill Walker.

The matchups here seem simple. Beasley and the Kansas State front court are without a doubt the strength of the Wildcats. On the other bench, Mayo leads and excellent group of perimeter players against a somewhat undermanned KSU backcourt. The difference, however, is that USC also features some excellent front court players as well.

Taj Gibson is a fantasic defensive forward for the Trojans, however, he has a tendency to get in foul trouble, and given the lack off depth in the USC frontcourt, that is absolutely no an option for him on Thursday.

The Davon Jefferson/Billy Walker battle could be fantastic. Both are athletic, skilled big men and each will get their fair share of highlight-reel plays.

The place where the Trojans will separate themselves from the Wildcats, however, is in the backcourt. Daniel Hackett is a terrific defender and should be able to take on Wildcat PG Clent Stewart and cause KSU trouble getting their offense started.

And, of course, OJ Mayo will be a big factor. I don’t see a KSU defender who can handle him 1on1, but KSU doesn’t want to drop into a zone against this team either, as both Mayo and Dwight Lewis could give the Wildcats fits if that happens.

While USC can get beat up on the boards at times, and while Beasley will certainly be capable of exploiting that weakness, USC head coach will have a gameplan ready to contain Beasley and make the rest of the Wildcats beat them, and that just isn’t going to happen.

USC gave Kevin Durant something to think about in his last collegiate game last year, and they’ll do the same to Michael Beasley this year.

First guess: USC 66 Kansas St 58

Wisconsin vs. Cal State Fullerton

This is a fun and entertaining CS Fullerton team, with plenty of talented players on the squad. And, while Wisconsin’s style of play may keep this game relatively close, this is about the worst possible matchup for the Titans.

There just isn’t a lot of size on the Titans roster (the closest player they have to a “center” is 6’5” Big West POTY Scott Cutley), and there is a long list of big bodies ready to pound the paint on the Badger roster.

Further, while there are some excellent guards on the Fullerton team, they are going to run into perhaps the pre-eminent perimeter defender in the country in Michael Flowers. Wisconsin decides that they want to completely eliminate the scoring punch that Jr G Josh Akognon brings the Titans? Sick Flowers on him. Ray Reed’s ballhandling and penetration allowing the Titans to get some open perimeter shots? Throw #22 on him and he’ll quiet right down.

This is just not a game that Fullerton can reasonably expect to win.

First guess: Wisconsin 59 CS Fullerton 43

Gonzaga vs. Davidson

Okay, if USC/Kansas St is the sexiest first round matchup, this is the really cute first round matchup with a great personality. And, it is almost a shame that this has to happen. Wouldn’t you rather see, for instance, Gonzaga playing Arizona in one 7/10 game and West Virginia against Davidson in another. Unfortunately, for the second year in a row, the committee has found a way to put several of the most intriguing “Mid-Major” (man, I got through almost 3 whole regions before I threw that phrase out there) teams in 1^st round games against each other. Think Butler/South Alabama and Drake/Western Kentucky this year and Butler/Old Dominion, Nevada/Creighton and Southern Illinois/Holy Cross last year.

Anyway, what you have here is the tried-and-true bracket-buster program against the up-and-coming team. Davidson will probably have the best player on the floor on Friday morning (oh yeah, Gonzaga has to fly across the country and play a 9:30 am PDT game) in Stephen Curry, but Gonzaga has far more depth and bulk.

There will also be a phenomenal match-up at point, with prototypical Davidson point-man Jason Richards going up against Gonzaga’s more explosive Jeremy Pargo.

However, where Gonzaga is going to separate itself from the new kid on the block, is in the paint. Seven-footer Robert Sacre has been starting at the center. Soon thereafter, they bring in talented 6’11” Josh Heytvelt. That ain’t big enough for you? They’ve got 7’4” Will Foster waiting in the wings. Throw in 6’9” PF Abdullah Kuso, 6’10” “small” forward Austin Daye, and 6’8’ guard Micah Downs and the Davidson Wildcats will be looking up at their opponent all day long.

However, don’t think for a second that they’ll be intimidated. After playing teams like North Carolina, UCLA, and Duke tough in their non-conference schedule, the Wildcats now they can hang tough with anybody. But Gonzaga knows as much about themselves, and as good as those three teams are, none of them have the type of size that the David-no-more Gonzaga team will throw at Davidson.

First guess: Gonzaga 69 Davidson 63

Georgetown vs. Maryland – Baltimore County

This UMBC team is a far cry from your normal American East entrant into the NCAA tournament, more talented, more athletic and deeper than usual. However, being rewarded with a 1^st round match-up with a team that beats them handily in all three areas, plus is significantly bigger is not a good omen.

Jay Greene is a fine point guard, excellent distributor, nice shooter, but at 5’8”, even Jonathan Wallace towers over him. Barbosa is a nice player, but a matchup with Austin Freeman is seemingly one-sided. Cavell Johnson actually has some size, but DaJuan Summers and Patrick Ewing Jr are just athletes at a different level. All of this without even getting into the question of how they guard Roy Hibbert.

Georgetown has been playing well lately, and are a veteran team with plenty of experience. As nice of a year as UMBC has had, this is the end of the line.

First guess: Georgetown 70 UMBC 52

NCAA Tournament First Round Capsules: East Region

North Carolina vs. Mt. St. Mary’s/Coppin State

Did I ever mention how much I hate the play-in game?

I’m going to assume Mt. St. Mary’s wins the play-in game for my purposes, mostly because I have never seen Coppin St play, so I can’t really assess their chances. Not that either of these teams has a chance in hell.

Mt. St. Mary’s does have some athleticism. Guys like Goode, Vann, Cajou, the Atupems are all very nice athletes. What they do not have is anybody in their regular rotation who is over 6’7. Even if Goode and Cajou and Vann are successful at slowing Ellington and Lawson and the perimeter crew, they have absolutely no answer for Hansbrough in the middle.

This is not going to be fun to watch, and is not going to be close.

First guess: North Carolina 91 Mt. St. Mary’s 59

Indiana vs. Arkansas

The question here is really more about Indiana’s mindset than anything else. It almost seems like when Sampson quit in late February, the rest of the team quit along with him. I’ve thought for much of the season that one of Eric Gordon’s few weaknesses may have been his mental focus, and perhaps this is just another example of that. Unless Gordon or DJ White steps into a leadership role and can get this team playing again, no amount of match-ups or strategy will save the Hoosiers’ season

Supposing the Hoosiers were to care desperately about their first round match-up, they could match up pretty well with the Razorbacks, While Gary Ervin has made some great strides this year, especially in the second half of the season, running up against a tough Hoosier backcourt of Gordon, Crawford and Bassett could be a lot to handle for a point guard who is prone to turning the ball over. Where Arkansas generally makes their hay is in the paint, with big guys like Thomas, Townes and Hill grabbing rebounds and playing tough defense, but Indiana should be able to compete down low with DJ White an All-American caliber talent.

However, this really does come down to the mental aspect, and I’m thinking Indiana will not be able to flip the switch.

First guess: Arkansas 77 Indiana 69

Washington State vs. Winthrop

The type of teams that give Washington St problems are the teams with big players on the perimeter, teams like UCLA and Stanford. While I think Mantoris Robinson can match up pretty well with Kyle Weaver, there isn’t enough height on the Winthrop perimeter to cause Low or Rochestie a whole lot of problems.

This Wash St. team isn’t particularly deep either, but their 8-man rotation should be plenty to get by a Winthrop team that is nowhere near as good as last year’s squad that upset Notre Dame in the first round.

First guess: Washington St 62 Winthrop 51

Notre Dame vs. George Mason

This will feature an interesting match-up down low between Will Thomas and Luke Harangody. Thomas does have the tendency to seemingly disappear at times, but given that the NCAA tournament does bring out the best in George Mason, he should give the ever-ready Harangody a run for his money.

Notre Dame is going to get up and down the court, use its athleticism and 3pt ability to score a lot of points. Mason will want to keep the tempo a little slower, but does have athleticism enough to match up physically with Notre Dame, however beyond Thomas, I don’t know that they have someone that they can count on consistently on the offensive end.

First guess: Notre Dame 79 George Mason 68

Oklahoma vs. St. Joe’s

St. Joe’s is certainly going to have trouble matching up with Blake Griffin. While they could throw Ahmad Nivins at him (and they very well may do that), doing so would create problems with Longar.

I think St. Joe’s has the edge at the guard position with Tasheed Carr and Darrin Govens, and Calathes can create match-up problems of his own, but I think an incredible physical specimen like Griffin will be too much for the Hawks to handle, in a fairly tight game.

First guess: Oklahoma 61 St. Joe’s 55

Louisville vs. Boise State

Boise St is a nice balanced team: some good inside production out of Nelson and Larry, some nice perimeter players like Tiedemann and Bauscher and some good ballhandlers in Thomas and Greene. The thing is, Louisville has much the same makeup, but I think their individual pieces are a little better than the pieces the Broncos can put on the floor, and the Cardinals are far more athletic. There just isn’t a guy on Boise who can guard Terrence Williams man on man.

So the Broncos drop back in a zone? Then the Cards put Padgett in the high post and he picks them apart from there.

I’m sure there is a way that Boise can win this game. I just have no idea what that is.

Early guess: Louisville 78 Boise St 62

Butler vs. South Alabama

South Alabama is one of 4 teams in this NCAA tournament that I have never seen play (Cornell, Coppin St and Mississippi Valley St being the others), and they are by far the most meaningful of those 4 teams.

I really have absolutely zero capacity at this point to handicap this game. I can look up some reviews online and some stats and sorta fudge together some kind of guess as to what might transpire, but without having seen the team play, there really ain’t a whole lot I can say about this.

As to Butler, I know what they will do. They’ll play deliberate offensive, they’ll scrap for every loose ball, they’ll dump the ball into Howard, they’ll get penetration from Green and Graves, they’ll get 3s from all over the court from half the ballclub, they’ll play terrific defense, and they will probably keep this game fairly close, whether they are winning or losing.

I’ll say this much: Butler sorta got screwed with a number seven seed. Absolutely terrible. This team earned a 4 or at lowest a 5 seed, and by all rights should be playing somebody like Georgia or Villanova or (god forbid) Arizona St in this round. Butler got screwed with a 7 seed, and in the process, a seemingly deserving team like South Alabama got screwed as well.

Early guess: Incomplete data. I really can’t make a guess here. I could say something like Butler by a deuce and I may or may not be right, but it is based on absolutely nothing.

Tennessee vs. American

I like this American team. Garrison Carr is a fun player to watch, they will scrap and fight and defend and rebound and put up a fight.

And, they’ll lose this game by 20 plus.

Way, way too much athleticism on the Volunteer side. This really isn’t worth going into much depth. Tennessee will beat American in the open floor, they’ll beat ‘em in the half court, they’ll beat ‘em from the 3pt line, they’ll beat ‘em on the dribble-drive, they’ll beat ‘em defensively, they’ll beat ‘em in Lawrence, they’ll beat ‘em in Manhattan. Hell, they’ll beat ‘em in Africa.

First guess: Tennessee 81 American 56

NCAA Tournament First Round Capsules: South Region

Memphis vs UT-Arlington

Dream scenario for UTA: Dorsey comes in a little over-amped, picks up a charge a minute into the game. A couple minutes later, he is called for a little body contact in attempting to block a Vereen shot. Meanwhile, UTA is sinking back into a zone, giving Memphis the outside shot, and they come in a little cold. Jeremy Smith is quick enough to stay in front of Rose, Guignard and Epps are able to get open at the perimeter and Griffin proves to be athletic enough to hang with Dozier.

Reality: Memphis 87 UTA 61

Mississippi State vs Oregon

These are very different teams, but I think very even teams. Miss St is built on power and athleticism and the halfcourt game. Oregon is gonna want to run up and down and out quick Miss St and bomb threes all over the place.

There are going to be some interesting matchups here: who guards Porter and (more importantly) who does Porter guard. Varnado can clean up after his defenders if they do lose some of their quicker opponents, but the key for Oregon is going to be getting into the paint with guys like Porter, Taylor and Hairston and kicking it out to their teammates at the 3pt line.

On the other side of the court, the Bulldogs will be posting up Rhodes, posting up Gordon, and kicking the ball out to their own 3pt shooters, such as Hansbrough, Stewart and even Phil Turner.

This really is a coin flip, but I’m going to take Oregon as Miss St’s problems at the free throw line may come back to haunt them.

First guess: Oregon 65 Miss St 63

Michigan State vs Temple

Temple’s offense starts with either Chris Clark or Mark Tyndale. While I think Lucas and/or Walton can handle Clark pretty well, the key to their success defensively will be frustrating Tyndale. Morgan will most likely get the first crack at him, and Morgan is a pretty quick defender. If Morgan were to get in foul trouble, I assume Summers would be next in line, and while he is an excellent athlete, I would guess that the senior Tyndale will have a few tricks up his sleeve for the freshman

Another key battle here will clearly be the Neitzel/Christmas battle. Hard to say who has the edge here, may be a wash.

As far as interior players, while the Spartans certainly have their fair share of big men, none are particularly dominant. Suton can step away and knock down the perimeter shot, which could be a key here.

The key weakness for MSU is scoring the ball. If Neitzel can get his against Christmas and one other player can deliver strong contributions offensively (with that player most likely being either Morgan, Suton or possibly Summers, who has played well recently), then Michigan St should be safe here.

Early guess: Michigan St 69 Temple 62

Pitt vs Oral Roberts

Any way you slice this game, it will be a battle. At the point position, Jarvis should be able to give Fields all he can handle. ORU will throw Ogunoye at Sam Young. Shawn King can bang with DeJuan Blair down low. Ehambe will give Ramon and Benjamin trouble. Pitt may be one of the hottest teams in the country, but this Oral Roberts team will not be intimidated and they will not back down.

While both teams are more comfortable getting into a halfcourt game and going at their opponent, each team has plenty of athletes who will take advantage of transition opportunities when they become available.

I think Pitt has enough to get through this round (and possibly well beyond), but it would behoove them to get to Denver early, get adjusted to the altitude and, perhaps most importantly, make their free throws early in the game, as well as late.

Early guess: Pitt 65 Oral Roberts 62

Marquette vs Kentucky

This actually sets up pretty well for Kentucky. They definitely are strongest at the guard, with some weakness in the middle, especially with Patterson out for Kentucky. While Marquette does have some nice interior players, they aren’t the type of guys who are going to supply a lot of the offense. Bradley, Crawford and Jasper match up pretty well with Marquette’s trio of guards, although Marquette certainly has more depth outside than does Kentucky. And, now that I think about it, this is also the type of matchup Marquette wants. Marquette can struggle against big teams.

Neither of these teams will (ideally) take, or make, a lot of 3s. They are going to rely on their guards getting some penetration and creating offense.

Free throws could be an issue here for Marquette, as they can struggle from the line at times. While Kentucky has some key players who are not great FT shooters (um, Jasper), Ramel Bradley will be the guy with the ball at key times and he is a great FT shooter.

This is really a very even matchup. I think matchups like McNeal/Jasper and James/Bradley are going to be amazing to watch. I have a suspiscion that Marquette will get more production out of their big guys (Barro, Hayward) than Kentucky will out of theirs, so I’ll take Marquette in a battle.

First guess: Marquette 61 Kentucky 58

Stanford vs Cornell

Bzzzt. Bzzzt. Incomplete data alert! I have never seen Cornell play.

I think to beat Stanford you have to have some big guys who are at least able to hang with the Lopezes and some quickness in the back court to take advantage of Stanford’s weaknesses. With absolutely no data to base this on, other than a good 5 minutes researching Cornell, I suspect Cornell does not have what it takes to hang with Stanford.

Early guess, based on little more than a shot in the dark: Stanford 71 Cornell 58

Miami vs St. Mary's

At first glance here, the matchups that intrigue me are McClinton vs. Golden and Simpson vs. whoever Miami throws at him (a combo of Collins and Graham, most likely). I don’t think the McClinton/Golden is anywhere near a good matchup for St. Mary’s, but if Mills can disrupt Hurdle (who is already turnover prone) enough, perhaps the Gaels can limit the damage McClinton can do, but in reality, he has got to be drooling at the thought of that matchup.

A possible key for St. Mary’s could be Tron Smith, who has the athleticism to stick with McClinton, and a bit of a size advantage.

Offensively, I think Simpson will probably be too quick for either Collins or Graham, and Simpson can also be an equalizer on the defensive end, erasing some shots if one of the less athletic Gael defenders loses their man.

This will be a bit of a contrast in styles at times, as St. Mary’s will get up and down and shoot up a lot of 3s, and should certainly be a interesting tight game.

Early guess: Miami 70 St. Mary’s 64

Texas vs Austin Peay

If Austin Peay were to have a chance in the first round, it would be against a team without the backcourt of Texas. If they had been matched up with Stanford, perhaps they would have had a bit of a chance (okay, not much of one still). Against Texas? Augustin will completely negate the quickness and defensive ability of Derrick Wright. Justin Mason or even Damion James can handle Drake Reed, and the front line of Texas (which, to be honest, is the Longhorn weakness) will dominate a poor rebounding Governor team.

First guess: Texas 83 Austin Peay 61